The Bank of Spain says Trump's tariffs affected 30% of Spanish companies.

The Bank of Spain's Business Activity Survey (EBAE), published this Monday, states that almost 30% (29.7%) of Spanish companies have been negatively affected by the increase in tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. However, the impact is very uneven depending on the sector.

This edition of the survey, corresponding to the second quarter of 2025, included this specific section on the tariff war and its impact on the Spanish business community. The research sample includes 6,800 companies that were interviewed on this issue between May 5 and 19.

Currently, the only tariff affecting Spain from the United States is the 20% tariff the magnate imposed on products from the European Union . Although it has no direct impact on the country, being within the bloc can affect key sectors of the national economy.

In fact, in the breakdown by activity, industry claims to have been one of the most affected, with more than half of the companies in this sector (51%) reporting having suffered the consequences of Trump's new taxes. Meanwhile, 44% of transportation companies also reported having problems with these measures, and nearly 40% of retail companies did as well. In contrast, in other service sectors, such as professional, administrative, and real estate activities, the percentage of affected companies is below 20%.

Another finding of this survey is that the negative impact of US tariffs occurred primarily through indirect channels, such as increased uncertainty and a slowdown in the global economy.

Regarding the response that business owners expect to give to this situation, more than 45% say they intend to pass on the increase in costs to the sales price. On the other hand, more than a third of those surveyed say they will diversify their supply chain by seeking suppliers in other countries. Finally, 28% intend to open up to other markets abroad , a percentage that increases in the case of industry and agriculture (40%). "These sectors—agriculture and industry—are the most likely to open up to new markets," explains the Bank of Spain in its report. It justifies this assertion based on the fact that "they expect a greater drop in demand."

Among the possible solutions to the tariff problem, 21% said they considered bringing forward their supply purchases, and 11% reiterated that they plan to relocate some production processes to closer countries with less tariff risk, with no major differences between sectors.

As part of the survey, the BdE also asked companies how the increase in tariffs would affect the cost of intermediate consumption, sales prices, demand, employment, and business investment.

According to the results, the companies most negatively affected by Trump's tariffs anticipate a greater impact on their costs and prices. Specifically, 65% of companies expect input prices to rise, while 45% anticipate having to increase sales prices. Furthermore, 38% of respondents stated that the new tariffs will lead to a drop in demand for their products, a percentage that rises to 49% in the case of industry and 47% in agriculture.

However, in terms of employment and investment impacts, only a small percentage of companies (12% for employment and 16% for investment) say the tariffs will have an impact on these areas. The percentage gap between sectors is not much greater.

Once the tariff war is over, the outlook for the third quarter of the year is quite promising for companies in terms of revenue, employment, and investment. The results show that revenue increased between January and March, although it is true that this increase "is lower than that recorded in the same quarter of the previous year," the report states.

If the figure is seasonally adjusted, "a slight decline" in revenue is estimated for this quarter (April to June), "similar to that observed in the first quarter of the year," writes the BdE. On the other hand, looking ahead to the third quarter of this year, companies anticipate a "notable" improvement in their revenue, in contrast to the decline observed in the same quarter of 2024.

In terms of employment, companies generally report "progress" similar to that recorded in the same quarter of 2024. In the seasonally adjusted series, "slight progress" in employment is also anticipated this quarter, similar to the previous one.

It's worth noting that the increase in employment, as with revenue, will occur in sectors more closely linked to tourism, such as hospitality and construction, in contrast to the declines observed in trade and real estate. For the third quarter, the outlook also points to an increase in employment.

Finally, in terms of investment, the results show continued momentum in the second quarter, "following the more modest growth of the previous quarter." Specifically, 18.5% of companies increased their investment in the second quarter, two percentage points more than in the previous quarter. By sector, industry reportedly showed a recovery in investment, after having performed less well at the beginning of the year.

Investment, as with revenue and employment, also looks set to improve in the next quarter.

During the second quarter of the year, the surveyed companies noted a decrease in inflationary pressures, as expected. The percentage of companies reporting an additional increase in the prices of their intermediate goods fell by 13 percentage points, reaching 48%. Furthermore, this downward trend is expected to continue over the next three months.

Regarding the evolution of sales prices, a slight decrease was recorded. Only 22.3% of companies increased their prices during the quarter, representing a drop of 11 percentage points compared to the first quarter of the year.

In the medium term, the companies surveyed anticipate a moderation in inflationary pressures. Specifically, 65% estimate that their costs will be higher within a year , although this percentage is 5.1 percentage points lower than that recorded in the previous quarter.

Regarding expectations for sales prices, 52.6% of companies anticipate increases in the next 12 months, a proportion that also decreases by just over 5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, according to data from the Bank of Spain.

Finally, regarding labor costs, 72.9% of companies expect increases, a 4-point drop compared to three months ago. However, this forecast varies by sector: in manufacturing, it reaches 74%, while in services, it stands at 68%.

The number of companies reporting problems finding labor fell three points compared to the previous three months, but the Bank of Spain still considers it to be at very high levels, standing at 42.9% of respondents.

By industry, agriculture, hospitality, and construction are the sectors where more than half of companies continue to report a negative impact on their business associated with this factor.

Despite this, the main factor limiting business activity is uncertainty surrounding economic policies. Specifically, for 54.2% of respondents, that is, 3.2 percentage points more than the previous quarter, it is the main concern in transportation, industry, and commerce.