The future arrived sooner / Analysis by Ricardo Ávila

Throughout its turbulent history , Colombia has faced numerous challenges. Many of these challenges—including poverty, inequality, violence, and biodiversity loss—persist, while a few have disappeared, such as the one that was once considered a true state problem.

Just look at what then-President Alberto Lleras Camargo said in late 1961. In a speech delivered in the Golden Room of the Military Club in Bogotá, the president spoke of "the greatest threat of our time, which is the population explosion, which among us is no longer a rigorous statistical hypothesis, but the reality we experience with every step we take."

Such an alarm was justified. With an annual birth rate of nearly 45 per thousand inhabitants and a mortality rate of 13, the number of Colombians multiplied at a dizzying pace during those years, one of the highest in the world. According to the 1964 census, the population reached nearly 17.5 million people, 51 percent more than the 1951 census.

Many leaders spoke of a potential social bomb, due to the impossibility of creating educational spaces, building housing, or generating jobs to accommodate ever-increasing numbers of people. Faced with apocalyptic predictions, the issue of family planning gained momentum throughout that decade, despite the fierce opposition of the Catholic Church.

Such debates are clearly a thing of the past. Although the increase continued over more than half a century, reaching the 53 million estimated by DANE by 2025, the situation is radically different.

So much so that the entity has just anticipated the date on which the population peak will arrive. This is reflected in the demographic projections the institution completed in recent weeks, the latest release of which took place on Friday of this week. According to the estimate, Colombia will surpass 56 million people sometime in 2043, which will drop to just over 50.5 million by 2070.

For some time now, experts have predicted that at some point in the future we will go from being more and more to less and less. But what's striking is that this moment is much closer than previously thought.

Without going any further, at the beginning of 2021, DANE (National Statistics Institute) stated that a peak of 63.2 million would be reached in 2064. After incorporating the impact of the pandemic and reviewing certain parameters, the date was brought forward to 2051, when the population would reach 57.7 million.

A change of such magnitude is unusual, especially in such a short period. For example, when looking at similar exercises conducted by the United Nations, the perspective also differs from that of a few years ago, but in different proportions.

It's not at all a case of someone making a mistake in the data in Colombia, beyond the fact that models incorporate additional variables and computing capabilities are greater due to technological advances. The main reason is a sharp decline in the birth rate, which is now in the category of collapse.

The numbers speak for themselves. In 2014, 669,137 births were registered nationwide, a figure that experienced annual declines of between one and two percent until 2021. By 2022, the drop reached a surprising seven percent, followed by another 10 percent in 2023 and another of almost 14 percent in 2024, when 445,011 new babies were recorded.

This trend means that, from an average of nearly seven children per woman in 1960, the country dropped to three in 1985 and 1.1 last year. This level is not only far below the 2.1 per woman required to maintain a constant population, but is also one of the lowest, both in Latin America and globally. By way of comparison, only Spain in continental Europe shows a similar trend.

It's impossible to pinpoint the precise causes of what happened, not least because there are so many factors at play. The disruption to everyday life brought about by the outbreak of COVID-19 played a role, as it affected personal relationships and introduced additional elements of uncertainty about the future.

Other pre-existing factors, such as the greater participation of women in the workforce and the tight housing supply, also come into play. Specifically, the impact of the massive influx of Venezuelan mothers who crossed the border to receive birth care in a Colombian hospital became less evident this decade.

It's also true that humanity as a whole is having fewer children, something that can be seen on all five continents. Some believe that due to the communications revolution, which reveals a planet in disarray and growing collective pessimism, many couples are choosing not to conceive, not to mention the ever-increasing number of single-person households.

Whatever the case, what happened in Colombia is unusual given the speed at which things changed. Now, what's important is to understand what's coming, because the country of tomorrow looks set to be very different from the one we imagined at the beginning of the century.

Nor can we ignore the other key component: the sustained increase in longevity. Thanks to advances in medicine, greater health care coverage, and the adoption of healthier habits, people are generally living longer than their predecessors.

According to DANE, these levels are currently approaching 79 years for women and 74 for men, substantially higher than the 73 and 65 years, respectively, observed in 1990. Violence rates, which primarily affect the male population, are largely responsible for the gender disparity.

Since everything points to fewer children and older people, what is known as the population pyramid will change shape. If it was traditionally a triangle, it now has a rhombus, with the bulk of the population being middle-aged.

But the most important thing is investment in the extremes. For example, in 2018, children under 14 represented a quarter of the Colombian population, and those over 60 accounted for 13 percent of the total. By 2050, the numbers will be similar, although in reverse. And in 2055, there will be 165 people aged 65 and over for every 100 children under 15.

Among the positive aspects of the new outlook is the extension of what is known as the demographic dividend, measured as the ratio of dependents to three working-age individuals. Since the number of children will be lower, the dependency burden will extend until 2055, six years longer than projected in the DANE exercise conducted in 2023.

Beyond the overall figures, one of the important contributions of the recently released projection updates is the methodological changes. A multiregional approach was adopted, which, according to the technical note accompanying the figures, "allows for more realistic modeling of the spatial redistribution of the population and captures the demographic effects of internal mobility observed in the country."

This means that this tool will be key for mayors and governors, especially those who are coming. To cite one example, Bogotá currently houses 15 percent of Colombians, but by 2050 that proportion will be less than 13 percent, a significant change.

Having described the main results, it's worth noting that the most recent estimates are not set in stone. Periodically, and to the extent that field measurements show different behavior than expected, appropriate adjustments will be made.

It's worth asking whether birth rates will undergo significant changes in the coming years, as social behavior is susceptible to change. It's also worth considering that longevity will increase more rapidly in the future, due to future innovations.

Aside from the above, academics and officials will take their time to analyze what Dane has done. Whenever it comes to visualizing the future, even within the rigid canons of statistics, divergent opinions arise, and this occasion will be no different.

Perhaps the point that will cause the most controversy is the treatment of international migration. It's no secret that the influx of people from Venezuela—more than two million individuals—has radically altered the landscape.

Beyond this impact, there is the emigration of Colombians to other countries, the pace of which is expected to continue to far exceed the average of the previous decade. According to Cerac calculations, based on data from Migración Colombia, between 2022 and 2024, net departures of Colombians by air exceeded 1.3 million people.

The above does not take into account those who leave through land borders, including crossings through the Darien Gap, which reached significant numbers before Donald Trump implemented the lockdown. Given the promises of mass deportations, the necessary sums and subtractions will have to be done at the appropriate time, but the truth is that many continue to leave for other destinations.

It's enough to remember that for several years now, Colombians have been the leading immigrants arriving in Spain. In the second quarter of 2025 alone, the figure was 36,100, as recently reported by the INE (National Institute of Statistics and Census), the entity responsible for maintaining statistics in the Iberian country.

However, DANE assumes that comparing entries from some countries with exits from others within the country, the result is very close to zero. Since this assumption differs from what other sources suggest, a more in-depth survey would be ideal to provide a more accurate snapshot.

A few months ago, an important public discussion took place when technicians from the Bank of the Republic performed a simple calculation that cannot be completely dismissed. In 2024, the net number of births and the 273,772 deaths registered in Colombia was 171,239 people, so it is valid to suggest that the population may have decreased, as 391,406 people would have left the country, according to official data.

If so, the scenario according to which we will begin to decrease in number by 2043 would have to be examined. This and other unknowns could be resolved if a census is conducted in the coming years, something that will not be easy to finance amidst the known fiscal constraints. But making the sacrifice will be worth it, not least to determine whether we will move from the scare of the population explosion of the 1960s to the concern of managing a country with fewer people and many more gray hair until the end of time.