The stable dollar and falling inflation do not hide the warning signs in employment and wages.
Inflation has begun to show signs of containment, the dollar remains stable, and activity is showing occasional upturns . However, thenational government is facing a silent challenge that threatens to erode economic progress: the deterioration of formal employment and the loss of purchasing power of wages.
Recent reports from private consulting firms and government agencies agree that, despite the macroeconomic order achieved, there has still not been a robust recovery in registered employment or a real improvement in income. In this context, Garrahan Hospital has become the epicenter of a wage dispute that could spread to other areas of the state if not addressed with surgical precision.
According to the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) , manufacturing employment shows no clear signs of recovery. After twelve months of monthly declines, industrial employment barely remains above its July 2024 low and is still 7.9% below its October 2013 peak.
Official data reinforce this trend. The average per capita income was $442,596 in the last quarter of 2024, while the median was $320,000. For salaried individuals without pension discounts, the average income was just $415,730, compared to a basic food basket that already exceeds one million pesos for a typical family.
As with the university conflict, the Garrahan case highlights not only the wage pressure, but also the disconnection of traditional unionism, displaced by self-organized workers who reject the 1% monthly increase cap set by Minister Luis Caputo .
The second-in-command at the Ministry of Health, Cecilia Loccisano , was responsible for toughening the official position: she threatened audits, questioned the presence of "ñoquis," and spread rumors of a possible $400,000 raise that has yet to materialize. If that amount materializes as a bonus or salary increase, it would imply a raise of more than 50%, which would strain the fiscal balance system.
Garrahan Hospital – The truth behind the conflict. Garrahan has 953 administrative employees and only 478 full-time physicians. What's unusual: the budget allocated to administrative salaries exceeds that allocated to the entire medical staff.
The Ministry supports Garrahan and…
Mario Lugones , the current Minister of Health and a key figure for the ruling party in this area, oversees agencies such as the Health Superintendency, PAMI, ANMAT, and the disability agency. His role was strengthened after Mario Russo 's departure and he relies on ties with figures such as Luis Barrionuevo and Enrique "Coti" Nosiglia .
According to industry sources, Lugones is already planning to transfer national hospitals to the provinces or to private management, a strategy that would include Garrahan himself. Meanwhile, his entourage remains shielded and avoids exposing itself to the escalating conflict.
Loccisano's image also ties to past controversies. She is the ex-wife of former Macri minister Jorge Triaca , with whom she shared the consulting firm Eficci SRL. Although she is no longer listed as a partner, the company signed an agreement with the Buenos Aires city government for $37 million, recently revealed by the website El Disenso. The transfer of shares to Triaca was part of the divorce settlement.
The conflict with the doctors also exposes the retreat of traditional unions. The Garrahan strike, like the university strike before it, was organized outside of union structures. The Secretary of Labor, Julio Cordero , is traveling to the ILO and did not intervene either: he is not authorized by Human Capital to mediate.
Union unrest is escalating, with more than 100 active Crisis Prevention Procedures (CPPs) for layoffs or suspensions in sectors such as metalworking, tires, textiles, and transportation. The CGT, weakened and lacking the capacity for real mobilization, is clinging to generational change as its last hope.
Although the government managed to stabilize the dollar and contain inflation, the social front is beginning to heat up. Prioritizing fiscal and monetary policies has visible costs in sensitive areas such as health, education, and employment. For the Milei administration, preventing isolated outbreaks from becoming a widespread fire will be key in the second half of the year.
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