The US offensive in Iran stirs up market tensions and paves the way for another spike in oil prices.

Tensions are mounting in the financial markets just hours before the start of a new week. The United States' entry into the war between Israel and Iran, with the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, represents a further escalation of the situation that threatens to send oil prices soaring and derail the stock market.

Investors on Friday concluded a week marked by geopolitical tension , but one in which market movements demonstrated notable confidence that the Middle East crisis would not worsen. US President Donald Trump's announcement that he would not decide whether the US would support the Israeli offensive for another two weeks prompted a show of relief on Friday that reduced the losses suffered by the stock markets throughout the week to a minimum .

However, this Sunday's surprising move confronts investors with a more dangerous scenario than they had been expecting . As is often the case with Middle Eastern conflicts, the most direct impact of the tension on the economy and markets is the evolution of oil prices. And the escalation of the last few hours threatens to trigger a sharp rise in crude oil prices that could have significant consequences for global growth .

Especially since the US attack has already led the Iranian cabinet to raise the possibility of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz , a key point in global crude oil trafficking, through which just over 20% of the global supply passes . Although the decision, in the hands of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not been made and many experts doubt that Iran will decide to take such a serious step, which would also have very negative effects on some of its main international supporters, such as China, experts predict that the mere option will translate into significant increases in oil prices this Monday.

Since Israel launched its attack on Iran last Friday, Brent crude oil prices have risen by just over 11%, surpassing the $77 mark. In recent days, several analyst firms have speculated that a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices to historic highs, with analysts predicting prices as high as $120 or $130 per barrel . Without reaching that extreme yet, the scenario opened up by the US offensive could push prices well above $80 (levels not reached since the summer of 2024) and even approach $90.

Rising energy prices could deal a decisive blow to a limping global economy, affected by the trade uncertainty generated by Donald Trump's policies, and could add a new wave of inflation that would complicate the role of central banks. This combination represents a threat that investors will find difficult to ignore on Monday. With the major indices near yearly highs, several analyst firms are predicting a further downward movement in the stock markets, while investors seek refuge in assets such as gold, the Swiss franc ( perhaps also the dollar ), or bonds considered safer, such as the German bond.

Investors have shown remarkable confidence in recent days that the conflict will not cause major harm to the global economy and that oil prices will remain contained. Among other reasons, it has been argued that neither Iran nor Israel are interested in escalating their hostilities to a point where oil prices become a problem for major international powers. One of the clearest signs of this lack of investor fear is the strong performance of the Israeli stock market , where the TA-35 index reached a new all-time high this Sunday, rising 6.82% since the start of the conflict.