Leo XIV inherits a more fragmented and dangerous world

While Pope Francis inherited an increasingly polarized world from his predecessor, his successor, Leo XIV , will face a far more fragmented and dangerous one. This demands a higher level of diplomatic and political acumen if the Catholic Church is to preserve, promote, and prolong its historic soft power—that is, the ability to persuade others globally through attraction and co-optation , rather than coercion.

As head of state of the Vatican , the world's smallest nation-state, with a mere 0.44 square kilometers of territory, the Pope also serves as a spiritual guide for 1.4 billion Catholics and as an international figure of moral standing for many around the world.

Unlike in past eras, when popes possessed territories and armies, the Vatican today clearly lacks hard power in the new era of great power rivalry. However, it more than makes up for it with soft power . Essentially, the Vatican is a soft powerhouse whose global influence was fully demonstrated when more than 170 world leaders and dignitaries arrived in Rome on April 26 to bid farewell to Pope Francis .

In an increasingly turbulent world, the historic funeral also served as a de facto geopolitical summit , providing valuable opportunities for friends, foes, and acquaintances alike to converse, seek photo opportunities, or debate pressing matters of international concern. Notably, it gave Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky their first chance to meet face-to-face since their White House clash on February 28. A few days later, the historic U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal was signed, although it had been weeks in the making.

During his 12-year papacy, Francis pursued a vigorous "global" geopolitical agenda , going beyond the traditional Euro-Atlantic sphere where the majority of Catholics reside and where much of Catholicism has been centered. His supporters argue that he pursued a truly Catholic (meaning "universal" in Greek) foreign policy by making more than 45 trips abroad . His attempts at ecumenism and interfaith dialogue were often applauded globally.

While Francis frequently navigated the tides of geopolitics with force, he often provoked controversy and diplomatic counterattacks . Growing global instability has influenced the cardinals in the conclave to opt for more cautious leadership. A compromise candidate has emerged, a trusted figure capable of managing and calibrating public expectations more effectively, with a sober sense of realism about what can be done rather than what should be done.

Francis's prioritization of refugees and migrants around the world has often put him at odds with political officials, including in Europe, which is receiving waves from Africa and the Middle East. His harshest clashes occurred with the Trump administration over deportations and conditions at the U.S.-Mexico border , underscoring the irony of the pope's final meeting with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance on Easter Sunday, the day before his April 21 death.

The papacy's constant preoccupation with ending the war led Francis to conflict zones such as South Sudan and Iraq . His attempts to mediate in the Ukrainian conflict often failed. While Russia generally ignored his outreach, Ukrainian leaders grew frustrated with Francis's often contradictory statements implying impartiality but ultimately welcomed greater papal support. In the Gaza conflict , Francis's outspoken pro-Palestinian support and condemnation of Israel drew praise from the Arab world and international media. However, it also complicated Vatican diplomacy and its role as international mediator, and brought Vatican-Israeli relations to their lowest point in decades.

China's reaction to Francis's death was largely muted, aside from a basic diplomatic statement expressing condolences. The Vatican's historic outreach to China under Francis's leadership marked a significant break in the ice following the severance of relations in 1951. Since then, the persecuted Christian community has largely operated underground, with approximately 40 million members today. Although an agreement was reached on the appointment of bishops in 2018, Francis fell short of his goal of restoring full diplomatic relations. The next pope will continue to prioritize China, especially in light of its growing global role and the growth of Christianity in Asia.

Francis was very popular in his home region of Latin America, especially among the poor and grassroots communities. He traveled frequently there and even visited Colombia to fully support the government's reconciliation efforts with the far-left FARC insurgents. A referendum was ultimately rejected, but Congress passed it into law. Francis even negotiated new ties between the United States and Cuba, which were ultimately reversed by Trump, but he never influenced democratic changes in Cuba. Throughout his 12-year papacy, Francis never visited his native Argentina due to deep past divisions, where his detractors branded him a leftist "Peronist Pope." This was similar to the accusations made by Francis's conservative critics inside and outside the Catholic Church.

Pope Francis's commanding international presence will be hard to match. His papacy was anything but ordinary and nothing short of historic, marked by numerous firsts. He was the first non-European pope in 1,300 years. He became pontiff when, in 2013, Pope Benedict XVI became the first Catholic leader to abdicate since 1415. He was the first Jesuit pope, a monastic order known for its autonomy and for often challenging established power. His followers will remember him as the People's Pope who lived a modest life, ministered to the poor and disadvantaged, championed the environment, and stood up to opponents inside and outside the Church.

Yet his successor will have to face the consequences of Francis's haphazard administration, excessive centralization of power, hollowing out of institutions, and failure to address sex scandals and theological disputes. For traditional conservatives, Francis went too far. For liberal modernists, he did not go far enough. These divisions preceded Francis and will persist with greater intensity under his successors. Beyond Francis, it is above all the legacy of John Paul II , the second-longest-serving pontiff from 1978 to 2005, that continues to overshadow the papacy and the Church at large today.

Marco Vicencino , director of Global Strategy Project