Objective 2027: PSOE and PP move forward, tired of themselves

When it's not the details of the legal cases against his wife and brother, it's the WhatsApp messages with his former minister and right-hand man in the party. Pedro Sánchez doesn't get any upset if he opens the newspapers every morning. At the same time, none of these episodes have shaken his presidency. Nor have they so far sown enough doubt among the parliamentary partners who support the government to bring about its downfall. In the Moncloa Palace, they assume that, month after month, the political atmosphere will become more stifling, but that Sánchez will remain in power until the end of his term, unless he finds a very propitious opportunity to bring forward elections.

The goal is 2027. For the president and for Alberto Núñez Feijóo. It's a question of how much Sánchez's image can be eroded by then. The Popular Party is convinced that the issues affecting the president's family, and especially the most obvious case, that of José Luis Ábalos, are taking their toll on his public image. Corruption is the concept the PP insistently hammers at a government that, moreover, has been unable to pass the budget and is unable to pass many laws due to the ideological incompatibility between some of its allies.

"Enough with so much socialist corruption," Cuca Gamarra cried yesterday from her seat in the Congress of Deputies. While for a time, reports from the Udef (the Economic and Tax Crime Unit of the National Police) against pro-independence leaders were constantly published, it's now common for dossiers on allegedly corrupt political activities affecting the PSOE to appear, signed by the UCO (Central Operational Unit of the Civil Guard), even before the reports have been submitted to the relevant judge. In the Moncloa, they are completely closing ranks on the cases involving Begoña Gómez and the president's brother, but they admit that the outcome of the case against Ábalos is more worrying.

Everything contributes to the creation of a climate of distrust toward the government, and the virus of suspicion spreads easily. Those close to the president, however, maintain that some matters of no legal significance, such as the WhatsApp exchanges between Sánchez and Ábalos, contribute more to uniting voters than to causing them to desert. That is, provided nothing more compromising than what is already known comes to light. Even if the president can weather these issues, he needs both his management and the economy to remain on his feet.

Faced with the impossibility of implementing a government agenda that doesn't provoke differences among his partners, Sánchez is deploying political prominence in the international arena. Hence, he doesn't hesitate to champion a European position against Netanyahu in Gaza, despite the inconsistencies in his rhetoric stemming from some Interior Ministry contracts with Israeli companies. But this is an issue that unites the left-wing electorate and places the PP in a more uncomfortable position of lukewarmness. The same is true of Trump's tariffs, which the government uses to contrast the defense of Europe with the current US administration, and does so more forcefully than the PP.

To be able to compete, Sánchez needs to convince his voters about his management and economy.

For Sánchez to achieve his goal of competing with the right in the next general elections, he needs not only for the alleged corruption cases to remain relatively unstable, but also for the government's management to be perceived as not being strained. Unforeseen events like the blackout are moments in which this game is played, but also on other fronts, such as the operation of trains, for example. The perception of how the very serious housing problem is being addressed is another key issue.

But the decisive factor is the economy. Last Sunday, Enric Juliana wrote that Sánchez has everything against him except the GDP metric. Indeed, the economic data is favorable in Spain, and while this isn't always reflected in the pockets of some people, it provides the government with a soft cushion against the attacks of the Popular Party .

The PP ousted Felipe González due to a combination of the exhaustion of the socialist project, corruption, and relentless unemployment. Civil rights policies such as same-sex marriage from the Zapatero era were met with strong opposition in the form of demonstrations, but the then president resisted all of this until he was brought down by the great financial crisis of 2008. The economy played an important role in both cases, and the PP ended up presenting itself as the party that would resolve the supposed disasters in this area caused by the Socialists. Now, however, Feijóo is struggling to weave that narrative, even though he insists that Spain's unemployment figures are among the worst in Europe.

The PP leader told Sánchez yesterday that "GDP can't be eaten," although it sounded like an implicit acknowledgment that the economy is what provides oxygen to the government. On the same day, José María Aznar recommended that Feijóo formulate an exciting proposal , a way of reminding him that focusing on wearing down his adversary may pave the way to the Moncloa, but it won't be enough to build a successful project—a message that Isabel Díaz Ayuso and her entourage have been emphatically raising lately.

Both the PP and the PSOE are thus showing signs of exhaustion of ideas, of growing bored with their own polarizing strategies, of advancing wearily in anticipation of an agonizing final sprint toward the 2027 goal.