The government manages to stop the cayucos thanks to Mauritania's iron fist.

The government is managing to contain irregular immigration arriving in Spain via its coasts, with a significant halt to the number of cayucos (small boats) arriving in the Canary Islands. According to the latest data published by the Ministry of the Interior, in the first seven months of the year, arrivals by sea across the country fell by 32.5% compared to the same period in 2024. This sharp decline has not been seen in the statistics since the spring of 2023, when Spain and Morocco sealed their diplomatic reconciliation in exchange for the Moncloa's recognition of the Alawite kingdom's autonomy plan for Western Sahara. On that occasion, it was Rabat that managed to stem the irregular influx thanks to strict police control at the fences in Ceuta and Melilla. Now, it's the heavy hand that Mauritania, following the flood of millions of migrants from the European Union and Spain, is applying to its territory, which is causing the decline of the Canary Islands route, which has fallen by 46.1% so far this year.

The Pedro Sánchez government's approach to managing migration flows is nothing new. The European Union has taken giant steps in recent years in outsourcing border control to non-EU neighbors. Brussels showers countries in the Middle East and Africa with financial resources—it did so with Turkey, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia—to discourage migration across its own borders by improving the living conditions of its citizens. However, a large portion of these funds, as organizations such as Amnesty International have denounced, are used to implement repressive measures against migrants.

Arrivals to the Canary Islands have fallen by 46.1% this year after two record-breaking years.

The central government identified Mauritania as a "key partner" in stemming the flow of boats from the Canary Islands from the African coast. In the last year and a half, Sánchez has visited the capital, Nouakchott, three times—most recently two weeks ago with seven of his ministers—to further develop measures that promote "orderly, safe, and regular" immigration. While it is true that efforts are aimed at creating job opportunities to prevent border crossings, the security-focused approach led by the Ministry of the Interior remains of enormous relevance to the government's immigration policy.

Mauritania, which is experiencing unprecedented migration pressure—some 200,000 Malians are barely surviving in the Mberra refugee camp—has tightened its migration policy in recent months. Between January and April, Mauritanian authorities claim to have intercepted 30,000 people in an irregular situation: thousands of them have been deported to Mali or Senegal; thousands more have been transferred to detention centers. Senegalese MP Guy Marius Sagna has called, through his Facebook page, for a parliamentary mission to verify the veracity of the reports of "inhumane" detentions and expulsions in Mauritania. Furthermore, the dismantling of human trafficking organizations has multiplied, sending more than 100 members of these criminal networks to prison.

Mauritanian police have intercepted more than 30,000 migrants: most have been expelled from the country.

Mauritanian opposition leader Khally Diallo denounces that police operations in his country—the last in the world to abolish slavery—are directed exclusively against Black people. “Curiously, among those arrested and deported, there are no Moroccans or Pakistanis,” the MP told the French newspaper Le Monde. Diallo is referring to a raid earlier this year in which police expelled five Black Mauritanians before the government realized its mistake and repatriated their compatriots. The MP links Nouakchott's about-face to the agreements with the EU and Spain. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Sánchez announced a year ago an investment of approximately €500 million in Mauritania.

The number of boats leaving Nouadhibou for the Canary Islands, currently carrying mostly Malian citizens, but also Senegalese, Gambian, Guinean, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi citizens, has dropped dramatically, according to police sources. The Ministry of the Interior asserts that the immigration policy based on "bilateral cooperation" with countries of origin and transit of migrants in the fight against trafficking in human rights has prevented 40% of irregular departures to the archipelago at source. As of July 31, 11,575 people had reached the Canary Islands, compared to 21,470 last year. During the same period, 191 boats have arrived this year, compared to the 328 that arrived in 2024.

Experts warn that "there is no less irregular immigration," but that the flows are changing.

Cecilia Estrada, director of the Chair of Refugees and Forced Migrants, clarifies that the negative numbers reflected in the latest reports from the Ministry of the Interior may lead to "a mirage" because "migratory pressure doesn't disappear, but rather shifts." The researcher explains the migration phenomenon as a balloon whose oxygen supply, if you squeeze one side, can move in the other direction, but will remain there until it finds a leak. In other words, when some migration routes are sealed off, others open up, becoming increasingly fragmented. "There is no less irregular immigration," Estrada insists in a telephone conversation, adding that this is explained by the fact that the structural causes that drive people to flee their places of birth are not disappearing: armed conflict, climate change, famine, etc. In fact, as the Canary Islands route has been declining in recent months, the Algerian route to the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands has been increasing, slightly.

For Iñigo Vila, Director of Emergencies for the Red Cross, it is too early to consider a change in trend, despite the recent peaks in landings recorded in the Balearic Islands. These are worrying figures, but they have not yet sounded the alarm. From January to July, 3,482 immigrants arrived in the Balearic Islands on 182 boats from Algeria, representing a 124% increase compared to the previous year. If the current trend continues, by the end of 2025 the total number of arrivals by sea in the Balearic Islands will approach 13,200. The Canary Islands closed 2024 with 46,843 irregular arrivals. However, Vila warns that this will depend on a combination of numerous factors (surveillance along the Algerian coast, logistics of the organizations, meteorology, or sea conditions) that could drastically undermine the projections.

The Algerian route to the Balearic Islands is picking up, but with more sub-Saharan Africans than North Africans on board.

However, there is one piece of data that does indicate that migratory flows may be changing due to pressure on the Atlantic coast. According to data obtained by La Vanguardia , until July 15 of last year, 69% of people arriving in the Balearic Islands were North Africans, compared to 33% who were sub-Saharans. The statistics have now reversed completely: now, 66% of those reaching the Balearic coast are sub-Saharans who have traveled to North Africa to reach European soil.

No images of border fence jumps

The "permanent" collaboration of Moroccan security forces near the border fences in Ceuta and Melilla, as the Ministry of the Interior describes it, has meant that the previously common border crossings have become exceptional. The tight police control, beyond serving as a deterrent, has blocked mass attempts. You have to go back to September of last year to find an attempt in Ceuta in the newspaper archives, which was finally thwarted at the Tarajal border.