Immigrant workers: a necessity for the French social model, according to Terra Nova

France, whose population is aging, will have to continue to welcome immigrant workers if the country wants to maintain its economic activity and "perpetuate" its "social model" , estimates the think tank Terra Nova in a report published Monday, May 12.

According to the models of this left-leaning think tank, between 250,000 and 310,000 immigrant workers must be welcomed each year until 2040-2050 in order to maintain the active-inactive ratio and guarantee the "sustainability of our social model." By comparison, in 2022, France welcomed 331,000 immigrants, according to INSEE.

"Without immigrant workers, our economy falters," the authors of the Terra Nova report emphasize, recalling the importance of these workers in certain sectors.

Immigrants are thus overrepresented in high-demand occupations , such as home helps (61% in the Île-de-France region), construction workers, and cleaning staff. But this observation is not limited to low-skilled occupations: one in five doctors practicing in France has a foreign qualification.

The report's conclusions are based on the following observation: as the French population ages , in a context of declining birth rates, the active/inactive ratio is deteriorating, threatening the French "social model." The authors calculated that it would be necessary to welcome around 310,000 new immigrants per year to maintain the ratio at its current level. A figure that also depends on the activity rate of young people, seniors, and women.

It is "not a question of opening the borders to all the winds" , but of "maintaining the current level of openness by directing entries more towards economic activity" , they recommend.

Especially since the shortage of labor in high-demand professions is expected to further accelerate and worsen in the coming years, according to a France Stratégie report published in 2022.

However, this can only be achieved through work on the "acceptability" of immigration, admits the think tank, which also took an interest in a survey on the perception that the French have of immigration.

According to a survey conducted by Crédoc (Centre for Research on the Study and Observation of Living Conditions), 73% of respondents overestimate the proportion of immigrants in the population. Established at 10.7% by INSEE, more than a third of those surveyed believe it is higher than 25%.

A lack of awareness that "feeds disproportionate anxiety," according to Terra Nova. However, the French seem more in favor of "chosen" immigration based on economic needs, according to its online survey conducted in March 2025 among a sample of 2,000 people, representative of the population aged 18 and over.