2026 Budget: Between austerity measures for the people and increased military spending, François Bayrou faces parliamentary censure

Green trellis, blank year. While Emmanuel Macron announced, on the eve of the July 14 celebrations, during his traditional address to the armed forces, his intention to increase France's military budget by 3.5 billion euros in 2026 and by an additional 3 billion euros the following year – or "64 billion euros for our defense in 2027" – François Bayrou is preparing, on Tuesday, July 15, to unveil the various savings for the coming year.

A veritable austerity cure if the prospect of a €40 billion cut materializes. An explosive budget! Especially since the Prime Minister is required by the President of the Republic to align his plan with Macron's mantras, summed up in two phrases: don't raise taxes and spare businesses.

The mission entrusted to Matignon is both simple and particularly delicate: to reduce France's deficit at all costs, expected to be 5.4% of GDP in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, reaching 3% in 2029. According to the Ministry of the Economy, in 2024, state revenues amounted to "1,501.6 billion euros, while the total amount of public administration expenditure was 1,670.2 billion euros, resulting in a negative balance of 168.6 billion euros," we can read on its website.

This economic situation can lead to two analyses: this deficit results either from a drop in revenue or from an increase in public spending. The French Economic Observatory (OFCE) has provided an initial response.

According to a note published on Friday, July 11, "this deterioration is not attributable to a more marked increase in public spending in France (...), but rather to a significant decrease in French public revenue" since 2019.

This is a consequence of the abolition of the housing tax for households and the reduction in employer social security contributions for businesses, according to the OFCE. It doesn't matter to François Bayrou, who is determined to make drastic cuts to state spending.

The first option on the table: decreeing a blank year, which would consist of renewing the indexed social benefit amounts to their 2025 value in 2026, without any revaluation. The Senate Finance Committee estimates that this freeze would generate €10 billion, while the OFCE (French Office for the Coordination of Civil Liberties) is counting on €6 billion. Another target in the crosshairs: social security.

The government is reportedly considering tackling health insurance by strengthening the fight against fraud , reforming daily allowances, or reducing reimbursement for certain treatments. According to Politico , the long-term illness (ALD) scheme would be affected. These various levers could save €3.9 billion, according to health insurance.

Retirees would also be required to contribute, either through the de-indexation of pensions or an increase in the CSG (General Social Contribution). According to Les Echos , unemployment insurance rules could be tightened once again, with former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal proposing to put his reform (buried by the dissolution) back on the table. Will business aid also be among François Bayrou's victims?

According to a Senate report, they amounted to 211 billion euros in 2023, digging a gaping hole in the state budget that the head of government does not seem in a hurry to fill. Worse, according to Politico , to "buy the support of the economic world" , according to a Bercy advisor, reductions in "charges" are planned.

These ideas have put the left on a war footing. On X, François Ruffin was outraged to hear Emmanuel Macron call for the country to tighten its belt, to better redirect funding to the military sector: "The man who has increased the deficit like never before, who has showered his wealthy friends with gold, is demanding 'efforts' from the French," the MP laments.

Speaking to L'Humanité, Léon Deffontaines, spokesperson for the French Communist Party, denounced the decision to place "the burden of the war effort and austerity on the most vulnerable. The blank year and the freezing of pensions would be a blow to the French people at a time when they are already struggling to make ends meet and go on holiday."

And he warned: "This is a red line, our group obviously reserves the right to censure the government in the fall, especially if it tries to force through Article 49.3." The RN, which has not censured Bayrou so far, has expressed its fierce disagreement with the option of a blank year and is also waving the weapon of censure. It was in this same configuration that Michel Barnier fell last year. Before stirring up war, Macronie will have to win the battle in Parliament.