Decryption. Amfis, Summer Days... the left makes its political comeback, against a backdrop of disunity

As every year, the left is leading the political season. La France Insoumise (LFI), the Ecologists, and the French Communist Party (PCF) are holding their summer universities this weekend, before the Socialist Party (PS)'s at the end of the month. The left is subject to opposing forces, between a need for unity for the March 2026 municipal elections and profound disagreements on the rest. It must put its contradictory positions on hold to avoid losing some of the major cities it retained (Paris, Nantes, Rennes, and Lille) or won (Bordeaux, Marseille, Montpellier, Strasbourg, and Lyon) in June 2020 thanks to the "green wave" and the bonus for incumbents.

Well established in the suburbs, LFI will play the spoilsport and no longer wants to be content with secondary roles. The Mélenchonists, who are meeting for the Amfis in Châteauneuf-sur-Isère (Drôme) until Sunday , are preparing their own lists for the municipal elections, with the 2027 presidential election in sight. Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants neither a left-wing primary nor a common candidate, relying on his 21.7% in 2022. The rebellious and the communists, who are holding their summer university starting Friday in Montpellier, are boycotting the meetings of the "unionists" discussing around Lucie Castets , the short-lived left-wing candidate for Matignon, a hypothetical "Popular Front" for 2027.

Nostalgic for the NFP (New Popular Front) which allowed the left to come out on top in the second round of the 2024 legislative elections, the socialists, the former rebels and the ecologists, who are meeting for the Summer Days until Saturday in Strasbourg, are looking for the miracle formula to designate a common candidate, avoiding the thorny question of the primary.

The left is also displaying its differences with the Prime Minister. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has set the course for the new school year by demanding immediate censure of the Bayrou government, against its "devastating budget proposal." The leader of the rebels also accuses the Socialists of "non-censorship pacts" with the government. The Socialist Party, which did not censure Bayrou's first budget, seems open to dialogue, even though First Secretary Olivier Faure warned in mid-July that "the only possible perspective on the current basis is censure." The Socialists will present their proposals in September, hoping that they will serve as a "basis for discussion with the government," whose fate still depends as much on the Socialist Party's attitude.

Unlike in previous summers, the ministers declined the invitation to debate with the rebels in Drôme. They have become too controversial since their comments on the October 7 terrorist attacks in Israel.

The rebels also stood out by supporting the call on social media to "bring France to a standstill" on September 10 , after initially distancing themselves from it, as with the yellow vests. LFI decided to include this "popular initiative" in its strategy of maximum pressure on the executive. The communists and the ecologists also joined the movement this Wednesday. The socialists are more reserved. "We watch what's happening on the networks, we're vigilant. When we call to join a movement, it's within the framework of an inter-union, this is not the case here," explains Arthur Delaporte, spokesperson for the PS group in the National Assembly.

The war in Ukraine provides another source of disagreement with the Socialists, who are meeting for a summer university from August 28 to 30 in Blois (Loir-et-Cher). Jean-Luc Mélenchon attacks the Socialist Party and the "little Atlanticist left" on his blog. "The misinterpretation of the policy pursued by Europeans regarding Russia for the past 30 years is unfolding before their eyes. The United States will have to accept that a new map of Europe is being drawn." The leader of the rebels reverses the roles by making Vladimir Putin a victim when he speaks of "a veritable declaration of war on Russia" in 2008 at the time of Ukraine and Georgia's proposed accession to NATO. On the contrary, Olivier Faure attacks the "war criminal Putin who is buying time in the hope of a total victory", congratulating European countries for their determination "to stand alongside the Ukrainian resistance".