New Caledonia: an agreement to be revisited

The draft agreement on the future of New Caledonia, signed on July 12 in Bougival (Yvelines) by the Minister for Overseas Territories, Manuel Valls, and representatives of the six pro-independence and non-pro-independence delegations of the territory, was subtitled "The bet on trust." This bet, too quickly celebrated as if it had been kept, seems to have been lost, with the decision of the congress of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), made public on Wednesday August 13, to reject this compromise text.

While Emmanuel Tjibaou, MP and president of the Caledonian Union, the main component of the FLNKS, had initialed the draft agreement in Bougival, the text was quickly contested by activists and rejected by Christian Tein, president of the FLNKS, until the organization voted.

Just over a year after the outbreak of riots on May 13, 2024, which left 14 dead and plunged New Caledonia into chaos, the future of this French Pacific territory once again appears to be hanging in the balance.

Hardly negotiated, the draft Bougival agreement is based on an unprecedented legal construction – the creation, within the French Republic, of a " State of New Caledonia” enshrined in the Constitution, as well as a “Caledonian nationality” inseparable from French nationality – the transition to a new stage preceding that of full sovereignty claimed by the independentists.

A transfer of sovereign powers – limited in the immediate future to international relations – is envisaged for the future, but subject to a vote by a difficult-to-achieve majority of more than 60% of the Congress of New Caledonia, a condition deemed far from the application of the right to self-determination – recognized by France – as conceived by the FLNKS. Especially since the draft agreement provides for a revision of the distribution of seats in Congress favoring the Southern Province, which has an anti-independence majority.

The rejection of the Bougival text represents a failure for the executive. After its signing, Emmanuel Macron affirmed that New Caledonia was "opening a new page in its future," and Manuel Valls praised "the choice of courage and responsibility." The FLNKS's decision must not signal the end of dialogue. Mr. Valls, who described it as "incomprehensible" and maintained his visit to the Rock during the week of August 18 to "examine the draft" and "install the drafting committee" of the final agreement, cannot act as if one of his key partners had not formally rejected it. The text must be revisited. No one can forget that the 2024 riots were fueled by the attempt to force through a non-negotiated plan to revise the electoral body.

Already complicated by the weight of colonial history and the different conceptions of time that prevail among populations, the Caledonian equation is further complicated by the link between the signing of an agreement and Paris's financing of the reconstruction of a territory devastated by riots. For Emmanuel Macron, who has often denounced French colonialism of the past but claims to be concerned with preserving France's place in the Pacific, the challenge lies in successfully achieving decolonization in New Caledonia today. This cannot ignore the voices of either the Loyalists or the Kanaks.