The European Union proposes a budget increase, but not for the Common Agricultural Policy

This is the "most ambitious European budget ever proposed," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

This proposal kicks off two years of often difficult negotiations between Europeans.

The executive is prioritizing competitiveness and innovation, with €451 billion, confirming the European Union's pro-business shift amid trade tensions with Donald Trump's United States.

Three years after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Brussels also underlines its mobilization in favor of defense (131 billion included in the competitiveness envelope), and promises 100 billion in additional support to kyiv from 2028 to 2034.

"This is a long-term commitment" to "the reconstruction of Ukraine," said European Commissioner for the Budget, Piotr Serafin.

Enough to make Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban roar. "Ukraine would benefit from massive financial aid, while European farmers would lose out," the nationalist leader, close to Moscow, lashed out.

"Provocation"

The transformation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be at the heart of the long battle ahead.

According to the Commission, €300 billion will be allocated to "farmers' incomes," while the previous CAP budget represented €387 billion from 2021 to 2027, including €270 billion in direct aid to farms.

Brussels explains the difference by a new budgetary architecture and the transfer of certain sums to cohesion policy, which alarms the profession.

Copa-Cogeca, the European farmers' lobby, launched hostilities on Wednesday in front of the Commission by bringing together several hundred demonstrators against this "Black Wednesday for agriculture."

"This proposal is a provocation," and "no one has any interest in challenging European farmers. If this message is not heard, we will return," warned Arnaud Rousseau, head of the FNSEA (National Federation of Farmers' Unions), France's leading agricultural union, present in Brussels.

Scalded by the 2024 agricultural protests, the Commission nevertheless wants to be reassuring. The 300 billion is a "minimum" that states will be able to supplement with other European funds, said Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen.

Too high or too low?

The Commission's overall presentation has been the subject of mixed reactions.

France, through its Minister Delegate for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, described it as "ambitious."

This budget is, however, "too high" in the eyes of the Netherlands, one of the "frugal" countries that regularly demands savings from the EU.

In the European Parliament, the two rapporteurs, Siegfried Muresan (EPP, right) and Carla Tavares (Social Democrat, left), consider the increase shown to be very insufficient because it is partly explained by inflation and the repayment of the European loan taken out during the Covid pandemic.

"The proposal reflects a surprising lack of ambition," they say.

The previous budget, from 2021 to 2027, represented €1.2 trillion but was supplemented by an €800 billion stimulus package during the Covid crisis. And choices had to be made, given the EU's daunting budgetary equation.

Already drained, the states do not want to put more into the common pot, like France, which assured on Wednesday that it would pay the EU less than planned in 2026. This, even though the list of European expenditures continues to grow.

The Commission is therefore seeking new resources. It is proposing an additional levy on tobacco, a contribution from large companies, or a new tax on non-recycled electronic waste.

All this comes as environmentalists fear that budgetary constraints will force them to sacrifice funding for environmental protection.

What will the decisions be in two years? "As usual, everything will end with five days of negotiations" at a summit between the 27, predicts a European official.

With the underlying theme being the persistent division between the most "frugal" budgetary states and those like France that are calling for a new common European loan.