What does the first poll reveal one year before the municipal elections in Toulon?

"Do you know the results?" In the Var political microcosm, this is the question everyone is asking.

The object of so much interest? A first poll on the 2026 municipal elections in Toulon, which the National Rally could wrest from the right-wing majority.

Suffice it to say that the data collected on nearly 1,000 people (between January and February, i.e. before the candidacy of Magali Brunel on the left or Pierre-Jacques Depallens in the center) is ultra-confidential.

Some elements have begun to leak out, notably the strong popularity of Hubert Falco, well above the fray after having spent 22 years running the city, and that of RN MP Laure Lavalette, who has been moving from one TV studio to another since her election in the 2022 legislative elections.

But not always with the right numbers or the right titles.

Jean-Pierre Colin (former deputy mayor of La Seyne and vice-president of the region) is the person behind this commission from the Elabe Institute. He carefully guards the document, which he paid for with €25,000 out of his own pocket, just as he did six years earlier in La Seyne. It also includes the priorities of the citizens (security, mobility, health, etc.).

This insurer, who did not wish to comment, was nevertheless able to draw some lessons from it, while being able to zoom in by neighborhood or socio-professional categories.

And shared them with some of his close friends. "There's a fire," said one of them, who fears the return of the far right to Toulon 25 years after the end of Jean-Marie Le Chevallier's term.

To avoid this scenario, the Colin clan has been paying particular attention to the rates of positive and negative opinions. And for good reason.

Michel Bonnus more appreciated than Josée Massi

On this criterion alone, Senator (LR) Michel Bonnus , who is part of Jean-Pierre Colin's entourage, comes out on top. Taking into account only the Toulon residents who know him, the former rugby player obtains 89% of positive opinions, according to our information.

That's only 11% bad. "It reinforces my confidence, the way people look at me, " he says. " When you grow up in Toulon, you can't lie about your story. I've stayed true to myself."

He is outpacing the current mayor Josée Massi (municipal majority), who has 85% satisfaction, against 15% dissatisfaction.

Although Hubert Falco's former deputy mayor did not respond to our requests, these four-point differences will certainly be at the center of negotiations between the two leading figures of the right, who are unofficially preparing for the municipal election campaign with competing lists.

"It sets the balance of power ," emphasizes a Toulon local figure, for whom time is of the essence. "If they don't come together before the summer, they're doomed."

The image projected by Yannick Chenevard (presidential party), the only non-RN MP from the Var, was also tested. The parliamentarian thus benefits from 79% positive opinions, compared to 21% negative ones.

"The figures for those serving in Toulon are rather encouraging, " he believes. "I even see a great deal of hope if the right leaves united, which is what I am working towards. We must not forget that it was division that allowed the National Front to win the city in 1995."

Does he see himself as a leader, while some see him as "the last bulwark against the far right in Toulon" ?

"It's not current," he deflects, twenty days before the decision of the Court of Cassation, which was appealed to by Hubert Falco.

Hubert Falco and Laure Lavalette neck and neck

In the same poll, the man who ruled the city until 2023, the date of his first sentence to three years in prison with suspended sentence and five years of ineligibility with immediate effect (provisional execution) for receiving stolen public funds in the so-called fridge affair, is credited with 24% negative opinions and 76% positive opinions.

When contacted, he did not respond. Neither did Laure Lavalette, who has a quarter of negative opinions compared to 75% of positive opinions.

While the latter is in Jordan Bardella's good books and is a hit on social media, some Toulon residents no doubt also remember the hateful tweets of his friend and former parliamentary assistant Nicolas Koutseff and his recent pressure on the mayor of Solliès-Pont.

According to Jean-Pierre Colin's entourage, who were informed, " this working basis " should also serve as a warning regarding the future of the Metropolis.

" If Laure Lavalette wins in Toulon, it will come down to three votes for the presidency of TPM ," predicts a Toulon executive, calculator in hand.

He fears that some future elected officials in La Valette, La Seyne or even Six-Fours (also in the National Rally's target) will not be "impervious to the lure of the RN": " We must not lose anything ." This is also what Laure Lavalette must be telling herself.