Agreement or no agreement, here's what happens

August 1st and the threat of US tariffs is approaching. From the disruptive 30% proposal, Trump is now willing to lower it to 15%, with positive or negative exceptions for certain sectors. For example, the 50% tariff on steel would remain in place.

Then there's the issue of exemptions. Negotiations on this are still ongoing, and some sectors could be saved: agricultural products, alcohol, timber, and medical devices.

The EU-27 also wants high tariffs to be avoided on at least three products: cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Otherwise, the entire agreement risks collapse. For this reason, the EU's Trade Barriers Committee has approved a single list of €93 billion worth of US products to be hit starting August 7 with tariffs of up to 30%.

Uncertainty is such that pessimistic estimates abound: according to a simulation by the Confindustria Research Center, the price to be paid in the event of 15% tariffs would be €22.6 billion in reduced exports to the US for Italian companies. According to the German Ifo Institute, one in three industrial companies surveyed predicts a withdrawal from the United States in global trade relations.

Yet not everything seems to be negative: The composite PMI, which measures the three-month expectations of European business managers, rose to 51 in July, an 11-month high and exceeding economists' expectations, settling above 50—the threshold between contraction and expansion. Both the services and manufacturing sectors are growing.