Investments, coverage, traffic, tolls: all the numbers of the Bridge
It's controversial and divisive. And it likely will be for a long time to come. The Messina Strait Bridge is destined to be much more than just infrastructure, because it could be the decision that will shape the economic policy of an entire region of the country. This is also why a debate based on numbers is essential, without overlooking a little-discussed estimate: the drastic population decline that the very area of the country most affected by the project, Southern Italy, will experience between now and 2070.
On August 6, the CIPESS (Inter-Ministerial Committee for Economic Planning and Sustainable Development) approved the final design for the bridge. This resolution followed the signing of the addendum to the contract between the Concessionaire Company Strait of Messina and the General Contractor Eurolink, led by Webuild.
Now it's up to the Court of Auditors to decide, and a few days ago, Minister of Transport Infrastructure Matteo Salvini said he expected approval within about a month. Most of the figures to be examined are contained in the Economic and Financial Plan and its annexes, which span a 38-year timeframe (2025-2026), including eight years of design and construction (2025-2032, with investment in 2033) and 20 years of operation (2033-2062). The investment, net of expected public contributions, is expected to be amortized within the concession expiration date, with no takeover value.
The study conducted by Tplan Consulting, attached to the Economic and Financial Planning Document (PEF), prudentially forecasts an average annual traffic growth rate of 1% for both passengers and freight for the years of the concession period after 2032 (when the project is due to enter into operation), up to 2062, for a cumulative increase of over 30%.
This estimate was emphasized in a preparatory note for the CIPE meeting that approved the final design for the bridge by the DIPE, the Department for Economic Policy Planning and Coordination at Palazzo Chigi. The Ministry of Economic Development (DIP) asked for clarification on the rationale behind this estimate, noting that – according to ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics) projections on the country's demographic trend – the Southern Italian population will experience a sharp decline over the same period, in the order of 32% by 2070. In response to the Ministry's observations, Tplan Consulting updated its study, adding that passenger mobility is expected to grow by 1.5% annually until 2032, and freight traffic by 2%. In subsequent years, a conservative 1% increase for both components would be achieved. The study highlights, however, "how mobility growth is not strictly correlated with demographic trends or regional GDP, but is rather influenced by structural and systemic factors – such as ties with the rest of the country, tourism demand, and the evolution of transportation supply – which have historically supported increased flows, even in contexts of demographic decline or local economic stagnation." These conclusions were shared by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport.
Traffic estimates form the basis for toll revenues. Starting with one fact: revenues from the project currently under management are expected to reach €162.8 million in 2033 and €336.4 million in 2062. This latter figure will consist of €300.4 million in road crossing toll revenues and the remainder from rail fees and the territorial continuity contribution currently collected by RFI (Italian Railway Network) for Sicily.
The operating fees indicated in the approved Economic and Financial Planning Document (PEF), the Ministry of Economic Development (DIP) notes in its statement, provide for a discount of approximately 80% compared to current levels for motorcycles and cars, and 20% for vans and trucks. Specifically, the user fees (per trip, including VAT at 2024 values) are €1.79 for motorcycles; €3.93 for cars (same-day return), €4.49 (with return within three days), or €7.14 (with return within 90 days); €7.20 for local public transport buses; and €33.40 for long-distance buses. For freight, the fees range from €45.70 per trip for vans to €102.40 for trucks. The calculations also include an estimate, limited to 2033, of transits: in total just over 4.5 million vehicles, of which almost 2.3 million are cars and just under 1 million trucks.
The bridge, with a design life of 200 years, will have a central span of 3,300 meters, with a total length of 3,666 meters. The deck width will be 60.4 meters, and the towers will be 399 meters high. Two pairs of cables are planned for the suspension system, with a total length of 5,320 meters and a diameter of 1.26 meters, and anchor blocks totaling 533,000 square meters. The central navigable channel for the transit of large ships will be 65 meters high.
The project consists of two lanes plus an emergency lane for road traffic, in each direction, with a total capacity of 6,000 vehicles/hour. Two railway tracks and lateral sidewalks are also included, for an infrastructure capacity of 200 trains/day. The project also includes road and rail link works on the Calabrian and Sicilian sides (a total of 20.3 km of road connections and 20.2 km of rail connections), mostly in tunnels, to ensure connection to the new Salerno-Reggio Calabria motorway and the future Naples-Reggio Calabria high-speed line on the one hand, and to the Messina-Catania and Messina-Palermo motorway sections on the other.
The total investment is estimated at €13.532 billion. Of this, €10.508 billion refers to the general contractor's contract, which is divided into €9.242 billion for construction work and €1.266 billion in non-reductionable costs, such as safety costs (€203.3 million), engineering services and monitoring activities (€304.8 million), and measures and works to offset the territorial and social impact (€267 million). There are also nearly €3 billion in other costs (€1.9 billion of which are available to the client), including specialized construction management, environmental monitoring, area cleanup of pollutants, anti-sabotage inspection devices, surveillance activities and archaeological investigations, and compliance protocol fees.
Annual operating costs for the period 2033-2062 are estimated at approximately €80 million, of which approximately €6 million for ordinary maintenance, approximately €24 million for personnel expenses, and €50 million for other costs. Then there is the issue of extraordinary maintenance, estimated at €1.64 billion between 2034 and 2060. This estimate, as the PEF Report specifies, was based on the experience of international operators managing the maintenance of large suspension bridges in Denmark, Turkey, and Japan. Specifically, the project envisages complete resurfacing of the bridge every five years, replacement of 20% of the road barriers every 15 years, replacement of 50% of the paintwork every 15 years, and replacement of mechanical systems and equipment every 15 years. According to the documentation examined by Dipe and Cipess, the total value of the investment, including extraordinary maintenance, amounts to just over 15.3 billion euros, to which must be added the net investments in revertible assets of the Stretto di Messina company of 189.7 million.
Over half of the project's funding—a total of €13.532 billion—was allocated in the 2024 budget law, then supplemented the following year (€6.962 billion). A significant portion, however, comes from the Development and Cohesion Fund, the major national fund for cohesion policies and the reduction of territorial disparities, 80% of which is earmarked for Southern Italy. Its purpose is to finance capital expenditures for projects that must be additional to ordinary state spending. Specifically, €4.6 billion will be drawn from the FSC for the Bridge, representing the central government's share of the 2021-2027 programming period, and €1.6 billion for the Sicily and Calabria regions' share for the 2021-2027 programming period. A further €370 million in coverage refers to the capital increase of Stretto di Messina spa reserved for the Ministry of Economy and which materialized on December 27, 2023.
Excluded from these calculations is the expenditure, totaling €500 million, already authorized by the 2024 budget law for related projects, as identified by CIPESS based on the proposals submitted by Salvini's ministry following the Services Conference, but not included in the decisions submitted to the Committee in early August. This list of projects, along with the related €500 million, is now expected to be submitted to CIPESS.
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