Trump-Putin Meeting/ All the weaknesses that could lead to a ceasefire agreement
Manoeuvres are underway ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting scheduled for August 15 in Alaska. The EU intends to develop a proposal to keep Zelensky in the game.
Who knows whether the meeting between Trump and Putin scheduled for Friday, August 15, in Alaska will ultimately be seen by history as a milestone in the Ukrainian conflict or just one of the many turning points that have occurred since February 2022.
It must be said, first of all, that the speculations that have been circulating in recent days about the contents of a possible draft agreement are just speculations, also because no one outside the closest circle of the two leaders really knows what these talks are going to look like from the outset, nor how the mission to Moscow by American special envoy Steve Witkoff ended.
The time is certainly ripe for a ceasefire, which at this point could be beneficial to both sides, with Zelensky currently claiming territorial integrity (“we will not give our land away to the Russians”), but he may eventually be forced to accept the status quo.
Putin, on the other hand, is winning on the ground, but Russian successes are very slow and very costly, both in economic terms and in human losses, even if lower than declared by the Ukrainian media.
Aside from Crimea, which has been de facto returned to Russia for several years now, the offensive in Donetsk is not overwhelming and in fact the area is not even yet entirely controlled by the Russians who, in 26 months, have advanced in some places by only 11 kilometers.
Suspending hostilities today would mean acknowledging that much of the territories claimed by Moscow are now in its hands, even if the ceasefire would not be definitive territorial recognition; knowing that then – in practice – provisional borders often become real. This is what the international situation demonstrates, from the West Bank to the two Koreas.
So, does Putin have an interest in continuing the war, while first and foremost having to save internal consensus and the status quo?
Perhaps a halt would be in his interest too; in exchange, he could grant the Ukrainians the already conquered Zaporizhzhia (with its nuclear power plant), thus "rewarding" Zelensky , who – after months of reticence – has been saying for several weeks now that he is open to negotiations, knowing full well that his internal power is eroding.
Ultimately, the ceasefire could be beneficial to both sides. Unfortunately, it could serve—and this is the other side of the coin—to replenish arsenals. Russian military production is reportedly growing, while Ukraine is dependent on Western supplies from governments that have granted them, but are increasingly faced with their own public opinion, which is now colder toward Kiev.
Of course, Zelensky cannot be humiliated, or his Western allies would be humiliated as well.
Ukraine's powder keg, moreover, is showing worrying signs. The president risks facing strong internal opposition and knows he cannot continue indefinitely with suspended elections and martial law in place. His democratic credibility is at stake, which could jeopardize Western aid, causing it to cool further.
On the other hand, if the moment seems favorable to Putin , the Russian leader knows that Trump's patience is running out as the American president has personally committed himself to resolving the situation: would he still be well-disposed towards Putin in the future if the latter ignored his appeals?
The tycoon had certainly underestimated the difficulties of reaching a compromise, but now for him it is a question of prestige, visibility and internal and international credibility.
So Trump "must" bring home a result that is first and foremost about image, and it is not in Putin's interest to lose the most important of his interlocutors.
In the background are the European partners, watching from the gallery, decidedly excluded, even if formally they will be more or less involved.
Meloni would have liked Rome as the meeting location (and the resulting image benefits), but the arms supplies to Ukraine and Italy's hostility are taking their toll. Better to pretend nothing is happening and wait.
Hence the choice of Alaska, which is American territory but was once Russian, with Putin demonstrating he can travel the world with impunity without heeding international arrest warrants, but with Trump playing on home soil. It's already a middle ground.
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