Brunello Cucinelli under scrutiny after the growth of the first half of the year

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Brunello Cucinelli is under scrutiny at the Milan Stock Exchange following the release of its half-year revenues. The stock, which started on the rise, is now declining. The Umbrian fashion house closed the first half of 2025 with revenues of €684 million, up 10.2% at current exchange rates and 10.7% at constant exchange rates compared to the first half of 2024. The company recorded "significant increases in all geographic areas, with the Americas recording +8.7% (+10% at constant exchange rates), Europe +10% (+9.6% at constant exchange rates), and Asia +12.5% ​​(+13% at constant exchange rates"). Revenues also increased in both sales channels: retail increased 10.3% and wholesale 10.1%. Founder and Executive Chairman Brunello Cucinelli confirmed his growth forecast of around 10% for both 2025 and 2026.

Analysts unanimously applaud the company's ability to achieve sustained growth, despite the current crisis in the fashion industry. This is largely thanks to its high-end positioning, which is primarily purchased by a wealthy clientele less sensitive to GDP and inflation. However, investment firms are advising caution on Cucinelli's shares , believing they are already fairly valued. Jefferies commented that Cucinelli, the first company to report its half-year results, will likely also be the best performing company. The firm's analysts were impressed by its ability to record growth across all geographic areas . They also appreciated the indication that emerged during the conference call that margins for 2025 are expected to improve slightly , also taking into account that rising garment prices, as indicated during the call, have increased globally by 3-3.2% in recent months and will also increase by around 4% in the coming months in the US alone, due to tariffs. In any case, Jefferies did not change its estimates for Brunello Cucinelli, confirming that it expects first-half EBIT to rise 8% to €112.6 million. The rating also remained at "Hold" with a price target of €107.

Intermonte, however, while maintaining its Neutral rating, revised its target price for the Umbrian fashion house's shares from €107.50 to €114.00. Experts noted that Cucinelli has a unique positioning and benefits from the continued strong demand for exclusive goods, unlike the more volatile demand for the rest of the fashion industry. "Brunello Cucinelli confirms its position as one of the few winners in the sector thanks to its positioning and its ethical and humanistic values," the company's analysts noted. Equita also praised Cucinelli's performance. "Given the resilience of growth and the messages of confidence expressed by management, we are raising our full-year estimates by 1%, with revenue now expected to grow by 10% (in line with guidance) from +9% (consensus +9.5%)," the SIM analysts indicated. However, they calculated a price target lower than the stock price, equal to 103 euros, albeit revised by 1%. "We believe that Brunello Cucinelli's performance will once again confirm itself as one of the best in the sector, which we see as declining overall. At the same time, however, in our view, valuations already reflect the strengths of the equity story." Equita, in particular, estimates that the shares have a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 47 times, compared to a historical average of around 43 times over the last ten years (which has risen to 49 times in the last three years), and a premium over peers of approximately 130%, up from 113% in the last three years.