Gold Rush: Value Doubled in Five Years, New Record in Sight in 2026

ROME – Pandemics, wars, geopolitical and trade tensions . When the global thermometer hits a new high, investors usually seek refuge in the asset that has historically proven to be the most solid and robust in maintaining its value. Gold . 2025 is no exception, having opened with Donald Trump's inauguration at the White House, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, and the start of the trade war initiated by the new White House occupant.

Thus, gold has resumed its rally , even though equity markets have also rebounded after the fears of Liberation Day on April 2. Previously, there had been a pause in the rally in yellow gold. It had already happened in 2023 and 2024, and now it's happening again. But, assures Peter Kinsella, global director of forex strategy at UPB since 2018, this is just another pause before the rally returns.

Gold's "pauses" over the last 3 years

"The first pause came after a 28% rally from the low reached at the end of 2022," Kinsella explains, coinciding with the end of the cycle of interest rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve to contain inflation, which had exploded with Covid and the energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gold resumed its rally at the end of 2023 , when markets began to anticipate rate cuts.

But in the second quarter, it paused again due to disappointment over the Fed's inaction throughout the summer. The precious metal rose from around $1,600 an ounce in 2022 to above $2,000 in mid-2023 . Only when expectations of an interest rate cut returned, and the Fed actually cut by 50 basis points in September, did the next phase of gold's rally begin.

Trump's arrival and April's record

The penultimate stop occurred at the end of 2024, after an increasingly rapid rally that began in February ( from around $2,000 an ounce to $2,700 ). Following Donald Trump 's victory in the US elections, "a climate of risk appetite prevailed," and instead of investing in gold, funds and savers turned to other instruments. This third pause didn't last long. When the president took office in January, trade and tariff tensions began, causing great confusion on the markets. In April, gold reached an all-time high of over $3,450 an ounce : since the beginning of the year, " it has returned 28.4% in US dollars, far outperforming global stocks and bonds."

According to Kinsella, the latest summer lull is a prelude to a new gold rush that will begin in the fall. Central banks are continuing to maintain their momentum with bullion purchases, which appear to have been averted by Trump's tariffs , and weak employment data will attract investment in the metal. "According to our forecast," he concludes, "it should reach $4,000 an ounce by early 2026. "