Iveco continues to decline, amid rumors of Leonardo's €1.6 billion offer for Defence weighing heavily.

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Iveco Group continues to sell off on the Milan Stock Exchange. The industrial vehicle company's shares are falling on the FTSE MIB after slipping at the end of the day, closing at the bottom of the list at -6.12%. Weighing down on the situation is the rumor, reported by Bloomberg, that Leonardo (which is holding steady at par) has submitted a €1.6 billion offer for Iveco's defense division . The offer, which also includes debt, would therefore be lower than the over €1.9 billion bid from the Franco-German group Knds and that of the Czechoslovak Group.

As Equita analysts highlight, if the decision were to sell to Leonardo for €1.6 billion, the deal would be "almost neutral for Iveco" and "positive" for the company led by Roberto Cingolani , "as it would be a more than reasonable entry price (Enterprise Value/EBITDA 2025-2026 of approximately 10.5/9x and Enterprise Value/EBIT of approximately 12/10x), also considering the upside of potential industrial synergies." According to Bloomberg, some sources have reported that "selling to Leonardo could still be the simplest solution for Iveco, as it would satisfy political demands to keep the business under national control." SIM experts share this opinion, emphasizing that "Leonardo-Rheinmetall remains the favorite for political reasons (not subject to golden powers), also in light of the explicit statements of several Italian government ministers." Added to this is the fact that "Knds was the partner initially chosen by Leonardo for the Italian Army's Main Battle Tank project, but negotiations were broken off in June 2024, leading to the creation of the JV with Rheinmetall."

Intermonte continues to value Iveco Defence at €2.1 billion, well above Leonardo's proposed €1.6 billion offer. Furthermore, the experts provide a preview of the second quarter 2025 results, due out on July 30, which continue to be weak . Weak numbers from Trucks (65% of revenues) and Powertrain (8%) "should weigh on results, only partially offset by the strong performance of Buses (17%) and Defence (7%)." For this reason, Intermonte estimates revenues of €3.7 billion (-5%), adjusted EBIT of €228 million (-23% margin at 6.2%), and free cash flow of €44 million versus -€94 million in the same period of the previous year. In light of an expected first-half adjusted EBIT of €380 million (-28%), "we believe a downward revision to 2025 guidance (current range €980–€1,030 million) is likely, toward the low end of the current range or slightly below that level, but in any case consistent with consensus, which is already slightly below guidance," the analysts write. However, experts consider this period of weakness to be "transient," and therefore the estimates for 2026/2027 remain unchanged.