Oil growth uncertainty is dampening demand: experts see prices at $50

MILAN – Barrels are increasingly cheaper. After a fairly stable July, European oil prices could plummet rapidly toward the end of the year. While demand remains weak, supply is set to grow, especially given OPEC+'s decision to increase production in September , thus eliminating the massive cut imposed in 2023.

Brent at $50 by early 2026

The latest estimates come from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy. From $71 a barrel in July, North Sea Brent is expected to average $58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, before slipping further to around $ 50 in early 2026 .

The forecast is largely driven by the increase in inventories caused by OPEC+'s decision to accelerate crude oil production, at a time when the market may not be able to absorb the supply surplus.

“We now expect global oil inventories to build on average above 2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2026, which is 0.8 million b/d higher than forecast in July,” the EIA explains.

The IEA cuts its demand forecast and raises its supply forecast.

Following the producer cartel's move, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also revised its estimates : upward for supply, downward for demand. The Paris-based agency now expects supply to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, compared to the 2.1 million bpd previously forecast, and demand to grow by just 680,000 bpd, compared to 700,000 bpd.

"The latest data show mediocre demand in major economies, and with consumer confidence still depressed, a strong recovery seems remote," experts point out. In recent months, demand from China, India, and Brazil has proven weaker than expected. And with consumption in OECD countries largely stable—Japan is at its lowest in decades—the 600-barrel jump between April and June 2025 is entirely attributable to non-OECD countries.

Inventory buildup will slow down during 2026

The market is expected to rebalance in early 2026: low oil prices will lead to reduced supply from both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, thus helping to moderate inventory buildup later in the year . "We expect the price of Brent crude oil to stabilize around an average of $51 a barrel in 2026, down from the $58 a barrel forecast last month," the EIA concludes.

Today, futures on Texas WTI and European Brent crude are trading slightly lower, around $62.7 and $65.7 a barrel, respectively, near two-month lows. Ahead of the US crude inventories data, the agency revealed that increased well productivity will push the country's production to an all-time high, close to 13.6 million barrels per day in December 2025. On an annual basis, the US is estimated to produce an average of 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.3 million in 2026.