The Fed's symposium, rate decisions, and US steel tariffs: this week's agenda

MILAN – This week investors' attention will be focused on the Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole , the annual gathering of central bankers, economists and financial operators from around the world that will be held from From August 21st to 23rd , Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak in Wyoming Valley , potentially commenting on the current US economic climate and the White House's calls for rate cuts. Hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the meeting has brought together the exclusive and influential group of economic elites every summer since 1982, when Paul Volcker was Fed Chairman and the economy was mired in a deep recession. And once again, markets will be looking to the traditional end-of-summer gathering to see what's next.

All eyes are still on tariffs: Trump has announced he will announce tariff rates on steel imports , which are highly anticipated, and on chips, another hot sector in the AI era, in the last week of August . Rate decisions are also expected this week in China, Sweden, New Zealand, and Indonesia.

From a macroeconomic perspective, US housing market data will take center stage, with the release of NAHB home prices, housing starts, and new and existing home sales . S&P PMIs for the US, eurozone, UK, and Japan will also be released. Key price data from the UK and Japan are also expected.

Finally, at Piazza Affari, we are waiting to hear the results of MFE's offer for Prosiebensat , which will be announced by Bafin on the 18th, and the Mediobanca meeting on Thursday the 21st to decide whether or not to approve the offer to purchase and exchange Generali shares for 100% of Banca Generali.

Monday 18th

Bafin, the German CONSOB, has announced the official and final results of the takeover bid by MFE and PPF for Prosiebensat. The offer from the group led by Pier Silvio Berlusconi will reopen on Tuesday, the 19th, for two weeks and will then conclude on September 1st. On the macroeconomic front, the August NAHB real estate market index is expected from the US this afternoon.

Tuesday 19th

All expectations are focused on the USA, where the new building permits granted in July and the new residential construction sites started last month will be announced in the early afternoon, two indicators of the health of the American real estate market.

Wednesday 20th

The minutes of the last FOMC meeting at the end of July will be published, revealing the opinions of the two members of the board - Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller - close to the positions of US President Donald Trump, who expressed their dissent at the decision to leave interest rates unchanged again, and each wrote a letter, published on the central bank's website, reiterating the reasons for their opposition and calling for a different approach to monetary policy.

Also expected are Japan's July trade balance , China's one- and five-year interest rates and monetary policy, Britain's and the Eurozone's July inflation, and Germany's July producer prices.

Thursday 21st

In addition to the Jackson Hole meeting , the Mediobanca assembly is meeting at Piazza Affari to vote on the exchange offer for 13.1% of Generali shares held by Piazzetta Cuccia, in exchange for 100% of Banca Generali, 51% controlled by the Lion of Trieste.

A series of macroeconomic data is also on the agenda, including the August PMIs for France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone (both manufacturing and services) and consumer confidence for the eurozone countries. From the US , existing home sales for July are expected, as well as the PMIs for both manufacturing and services for August.

Friday 22nd

The week closes with Powell's speech and a series of macroeconomic data . The Fed chair will deliver a speech at the end of the Jackson Hole conference, which has always been used by US central bank speakers to signal impending policy changes, although this has not always been the case in recent years. Following the release of the negative employment report, markets began to price in a rate cut in September, and several Fed speakers hinted at such an eventuality (Daly, Kashkari, Bostic). Others, however, seem more reluctant (Musalem, Schmid). Treasury Secretary Bessent urged the Fed to initiate a rate-cutting cycle with a 50 basis point reduction in September , but Daly stated that this did not appear justified, a view likely shared by other FOMC members.

Much attention during the Symposium will be focused on the nomination of the next Fed chair . The latest names to be circulated on the shortlist are Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, both former board members , and Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed. Bessent will also evaluate other candidates in the coming weeks and then submit a "shortlist" to Trump for him to decide on in the coming months.

Meanwhile, on the macro front , inflation data will be announced in Japan for July (and the cost of living adjusted for food prices), retail GDP in Germany, manufacturing confidence in France for August, and finally retail sales in England for July as well as the rating review by Moody's and Fitch on the United Kingdom's debt .