Trump threatens Putin, backtracks on Zelensky and Ukraine

A day before the Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump is presenting himself as a mediator, determined to bring about a turning point in the negotiations on the war in Ukraine. In recent months, we've seen a concerted approach , with a rapprochement with the Russian president, then a distancing that coincided with a rapprochement with Ukraine. Now there's a renewed attempt to end the war, but under certain conditions.

The White House tenant is even aiming for a subsequent three-way meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but without sparing rhetoric, warning Moscow that refusal to halt the offensive will entail "very serious consequences."

This latest statement comes after a virtual meeting with key European leaders , diplomatically described as “very good” and focused on strengthening a common line ahead of the Anchorage meeting.

Putin and Trump Summit in Alaska: The Rare Earth Issue

According to the British newspaper Daily Telegraph, among the options on the table in Anchorage is an unconventional proposal: offering Moscow controlled access to Alaska's rare earths , a strategic resource for advanced technologies, as an incentive to stop the war. A notable detail is that, to facilitate the Russian delegation's participation, US authorities have temporarily suspended some sanctions, allowing entry into Alaska even to individuals previously subject to restrictive measures.

The same package would include the idea of easing some US restrictions on the Russian aircraft industry , a gesture that could hopefully move the Kremlin without appearing to be a direct political concession.

Russia in the corner? Trump's threat.

As reported by the Guardian, Trump avoided going into detail, but the political signal was unmistakable. When asked by a reporter about the future of relations with Moscow in the event of a no-deal, he responded with a curt, "Yes, of course," implying that consequences would follow. When asked to clarify, he doubled down: "There will be consequences, needless to say, they will be very serious ." A deliberately ambiguous, Christian Democrat-esque statement, designed to convey the idea that pressure tools were ready for use.

In a post on Truth, Trump then harshly attacked the American media, accusing them of "quoting losers and stupid people" like John Bolton and arguing that even if he got "Moscow and Leningrad for free" in a deal with Russia, the press would still call the agreement a failure. He concluded by reiterating that " everything is being won " and that real news is exposing the corruption of his adversaries.

Summit in Alaska, European allies excluded

The face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin will take place at a military base on the outskirts of Anchorage, Alaska's demographic heartland. It will be the first in-person meeting since 2018 , after months of telephone exchanges on the Ukrainian conflict. The absence of Zelensky and the European leaders is no coincidence: it implies America's desire to manage the situation alone for the time being. This point has fueled suspicions of possible territorial concessions and a partition to be crafted without involving the Ukrainian leader.

As a result, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz brought together Zelensky, several European heads of government, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer via video conference in an attempt to bind Washington to a series of constraints.

The gist of the message was what one would expect, namely that:

• Kiev must be present at every discussion;
• the borders remain untouchable;
• the table must be for three;
• the truce must be called immediately;
• Security guarantees must be concrete, without Moscow being able to hinder Ukraine's path towards the EU and NATO.

Macron: "No negotiations without Kiev"

For French President Emmanuel Macron , Europe's position is not up for discussion: the fate of Ukraine's borders belongs solely to Kiev , the only party entitled to negotiate . In the French president's vocabulary, the Ukrainian capital is the outpost against Russian expansionism, the linchpin around which the entire continent revolves.

In the same vein, the Alaska summit should at least produce a truce, a prisoner exchange, and the return of deported minors, objectives that Washington, it says, shares.

London, Paris, and Berlin, leading the so-called "coalition of the willing," have emphasized a basic principle of geopolitics: borders cannot be moved by military force . Hence the demand for tangible security guarantees for Kiev, accompanied by the threat of new punitive measures if Moscow refuses a truce.

Zelensky accuses Putin: "He's bluffing"

Zelensky, aware of the stakes, recalled that Kiev does not intend to cede portions of territory and that any border changes, by law, would require a popular vote.

He branded the Russian operation in the Dobropillya area and along the eastern front as a “bluff,” intended as a tactical move, interpreted as an attempt to show an advance in order to influence the climate of the Anchorage summit.

In the Ukrainian president's reasoning, conceding Donbas would mean opening the door to new offensives, giving Moscow the perception that it can act with impunity.

What might happen after Anchorage

Trump hinted that, if the meeting with Putin is successful, a second summit could be organized immediately, including Zelensky. The Ukrainian president said Trump would speak to him after the face-to-face meeting with the Kremlin leader and that Washington would continue to support Kiev.

Russian advance in eastern Ukraine

As the Anchorage summit approached, Moscow also moved its pawns on the ground. At Dobropillya and along a stretch of the Eastern Front, Russian troops gained about ten kilometers in a few days : a modest advance almost reminiscent of the trenches of the First World War, but enough to signal pressure.

In the Donetsk region, the order to evacuate civilians with children from exposed areas confirms the deterioration in security. Luhansk is almost entirely under Russian control, as is over 70% of Donetsk. Meanwhile, just last night, a Russian refinery near Volgograd was targeted.