Tariffs: Europe risks a definitive split over Trump's response: Meloni remains silent, Mattarella turns to Macron.

The formula advocated by Germany and Italy , "calm and pragmatism," was confirmed by yesterday's meeting of EU trade ministers, as it had been by Sunday's meeting of the 27 ambassadors. " There is time until August 1st," assured Rassmusen, Foreign Minister of Denmark, the current president of the Union. " Negotiations are ongoing, but the agreement must be fair. We must be ready to react and prepare for countermeasures." Trump, for his part, said he was "always ready to discuss."

The widespread feeling in Brussels and other European capitals, as well as on the markets, is likely well-founded: that those 30% tariffs, " prohibitive for trade," according to the European Commissioner in charge of the negotiations , Sefcovic, are merely the opening move for the actual negotiations. It's a particularly heavy-handed and completely unexpected opening move, however. "We felt like we were close to an agreement," Rassmusen confesses, not exaggerating. Certainly, no one expected such a blow. For the Italian prime minister in particular, it's a very severe political blow. It was she, as the European head of government closest to Washington, who should have facilitated the dialogue by smoothing out the rough edges and softening the tycoon's tone. She failed to do so, and that would already be a serious blow to her credibility as a mediator. But the fact that the tycoon didn't even anticipate the blow he was about to deliver instantly erases that image. As a result, Italy's weight in the ongoing tug-of-war within the Union is diminished between those like Macron who are pushing for a strong reaction, and indeed would have liked to counterattack as early as the weekend, and those, like Meloni herself and Merz, who believe a conciliatory line is more useful.

At first glance, it was obvious that Germany and Italy would prevail. Everyone, starting with President von der Leyen herself, is praying and making vows in the hope of avoiding a trade war at the last minute. With a concrete possibility of negotiations still underway, it was inevitable that the launch of European countermeasures, scheduled for today, would be put on hold again until August 1st. However, while Trump the Merchant is likely indeed aiming for a tough negotiation, it's by no means certain that the point the president has in mind is acceptable to Europe. Tariffs of 30%, as all trade ministers have agreed, are truly unacceptable because they would paralyze trade between the US and the EU. But 20%, without reciprocity and without exemptions for the most critical sectors like automotive and agri-food, wouldn't be much better. Not to mention the request, practically spelled out in black and white by the tycoon in Saturday's letter to President Ursula, to eliminate all barriers to American products imposed by European legislation. In short, even considering the terms currently dictated by Trump as indefinite, the possibility of a last-minute agreement remains not only uncertain but highly unlikely, perhaps even unlikely.

The conflict in Europe, thus far avoided, risks erupting precisely around the two truly critical, yet unresolved issues: what margins of agreement are acceptable and what volume of fire to respond with in the event of a failed agreement. Italy and Germany are the most open-minded countries; France and Spain are at the opposite extreme, calling for a strike "where it hurts most," namely, with taxation on Big Tech. But ultimately, who wins will depend on the eternal unknowns: what Donald Trump will do and what he really wants. In the context of this absolute uncertainty, the most feared specter was inevitable: that of a European split. Without an agreement, the temptation to negotiate for themselves while trying to avoid the worst for their own country would become real. Every man for himself.

Italy is the country most suspected of being ready to break European unity , especially since it would pay the highest price for the trade war. The League has wasted no time, and since Saturday has been hammering home the need to go it alone. Forza Italia, on the other side, is shaping up to be the majority force, ready for a harsh joint response, even though Tajani will be in Washington today with the mandate to seek a peaceful agreement at all costs. In reality, Italy's defection would not be so easy: it would imply a break with Brussels, but also with the Quirinale, and perhaps even with Forza Italia. But if some other country breaks the unity pact among the 27, in an every-for-itself climate, Giorgia's Italy will waste no time in following that trend.

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David Romoli