The conundrum of candidacies in Veneto and Puglia

Michele Emiliano, who refuses to step aside. Antonio Decaro, who, consequently, won't step forward. Calabria, which votes in early October, still has no challenger for Roberto Occhiuto, who is running again for regional leadership. And Veneto, with its tug-of-war—which, after months of surreptitious activity, is now taking place openly—between the League and Brothers of Italy over who should succeed Doge Luca Zaia. This, in turn, has everyone on tenterhooks, whether he's on the list or not, waiting to see what he wants to do when he grows up. The next round of regional elections is a puzzle with pieces still missing, amidst twists and turns, and the two coalitions failing to finalize the shortlist of candidates.

The summer soap opera, which will likely end in September for both the center-right and center-left, has so far seen its highest ratings in Veneto, but now Puglia is also turning melodramatic. Starting with the center-right, Matteo Salvini's party insists, almost taking it for granted, that the League should be the one to elect the successor to Zaia, given that the governor will not be able to seek a third term (which would be a fourth). But Giorgia Meloni's party is quick to point out, as regional coordinator Luca De Carlo recently did in an interview with Corriere della Sera, that "Veneto is the region where" the Brothers of Italy (FdI) has achieved "the best results at the national level." It would therefore be (the jab at their League friends) "an act of extraordinary generosity" to give way. The scenario, he reasons, is very different from when Silvio Berlusconi first nominated Zaia in 2010, handing the region over to the League: "The numbers were different then," today "there's one party with 37% and one with 15%."

And Zaia's list "risks draining votes from the League rather than adding value." All options are being explored in the regions, including whether a hypothetical "Doge" list could actually host candidates from the entire coalition. In truth, in Veneto, the election date hasn't even been set yet. And, according to reports from the latest Veneto League board meeting, Zaia reportedly reminded voters that the last available window is November 23rd, which would leave them until early October to sign the decree.

A last-minute decision is also highly likely in Campania and Puglia, where the center-left has the upper hand and is in more trouble. Even where the date has been set (mid-October) and the name has finally been announced, Eugenio Giani seeking a second term, there's some turmoil within the broad coalition. So much so that, after protests from AVS over a two-way meeting between the PD and the M5S, the candidate had to clarify that a "collective approach" was needed and has scheduled a meeting with the entire coalition. Leaving aside the Calabria affair, where the most popular name is that of former INPS president Tridico, but there's still no agreement within the coalition (and it's unclear whether he'll even be convinced to leave Strasbourg), Emiliano's future has been a hot topic in the final hours. Due to the suspension of his third term, like Zaia, he too cannot run for governor again, but he is reportedly willing to run for regional council, like Nichi Vendola, also former president of Puglia. Antonio Decaro, however, has made it clear by all means that the presence of the two former members of the party is a virtually insurmountable obstacle to his return. "It's now become a personal issue," is the buzzword circulating among the Democrats. A poll showing the center-left winning, with varying percentages but with any candidate, has not gone unnoticed (even among the center-right). Even without Decaro, it's not gone unnoticed. For now, they'll let the dust settle, with the forced mid-August break, but the matter should be taken up again as early as next week to try to achieve a reconciliation in Puglia, which in turn would also allow the selection of Roberto Fico to be made official in Campania. And likely also the start of the regional congress of the Democratic Party.