Sinner, here are the tournaments you absolutely have to play and the points you have to defend against Alcaraz for a 2025 as No.1

Jannik Sinner's withdrawal from the Toronto Masters 1000 won't have a major impact on his ATP rankings . With his withdrawal from the Canadian tournament, the world number one, currently ranked 12,030, will lose only 200 points, having reached the quarterfinals in Montreal last year (the two cities alternate hosting the tournament). Also thanks to the withdrawal of world number two Carlos Alcaraz (ranked 8,600, and unable to defend his points in Canada, having missed last year's tournament), the Italian is confident of staying at the top until the US Open . Let's find out why.

Here's why Sinner is returning to Cincinnati

First of all, how does the scoring system work? The ATP ranking is calculated by adding together the points accumulated by a tennis player over the last 52 weeks (a calendar year). At the beginning of the week, the ranking is updated, and each player loses the points from the same week the previous year. This is why we talk about points to be defended. Let's take an example with Sinner: after the Canadian tournament, it will be the turn of the Masters 1000 in Cincinnati (August 7-18), where last year the Italian triumphed, earning 1,000 points. A year later, at the start of the same tournament, these points will disappear, and Sinner, to keep them, will have to achieve the same result as the previous year: the final victory. In Cincinnati, barring any last-minute surprises, Jannik will be regularly on court .

Sinner and Alcaraz duel for top spot in ATP rankings

Meanwhile, Sinner has begun his 59th week as world number one. After the Toronto Masters 1000, the toughest phase of maintaining his lead will begin. The South Tyrolean ended 2024 in truly spectacular fashion, winning almost everything (Cincinnati, the US Open, Shanghai, and the ATP Finals). Unlike his rival Alcaraz (who only triumphed at the China Open), who will therefore have far fewer points to defend. But how many, exactly? Let's take it one step at a time.

Sinner on the importance of winning again in Cincinnati

After Toronto, comes Cincinnati. Here, Jannik is defending his title (therefore 1,000 points), while Alcaraz has only 10, given that last year he was eliminated by Gael Monfils in the first round. Therefore, in the tournament week, the Italian will start with 10,830 points (we subtracted the 200 from Toronto and the 1,000 from the previous victory), while the Spaniard will have 8,590 (we subtracted only 10 points).

Sinner was world number one until the US Open

The US Open begins on August 24th. This means the final Slam of the season will be played on American hard courts. Here, too, Sinner is defending his maximum: 2,000 points (the amount guaranteed by Slams in the event of a final victory), while Alcaraz has only 50, having lost in the second round in 2024. The standings before the US Open will therefore still see Jannik lead, but here the Spaniard could have his first real chance to overtake him (everything depends on the result in Cincinnati).

In Beijing Alcaraz is forced to win

From the States to China, the challenge between the two will continue in Beijing (ATP 500), where last year Carlos defeated Jannik in the tournament's final act. This means Alcaraz will defend the 500 points he earned for his final victory, against the Italian's 330.

In Shanghai, Sinner must defend 1,000 points.

Still in China, from 1st to 12th October it will be the turn of the Shanghai Masters 1000 , where Sinner is defending his title (1,000 points) and Alcaraz only 200, because last year he stopped in the quarter-finals.

Paris-Bercy, Sinner at Alcaraz still in doubt

It is also worth considering the presence of both at the last Masters 1000 of the season, the one in Paris-Bercy : Jannik did not participate in 2024, while Alcaraz concluded his French experience in the third round (100 points to defend).

The ATP Finals stumbling block

Meanwhile, the race continues toward the ATP Finals in Turin (November 9-16), the most important professional tournament of the year after the four Grand Slam events. The eight players who have earned the most ATP points over the course of the calendar year, starting January 1, 2025, will compete in Turin. The ranking to determine the eight players has a different name than the standard one: it's the " ATP Race ," and Alcaraz is leading the way, thanks to Sinner's three-month layoff. The Finals offer 1,500 ATP points. In the last edition, it was the Italian who earned them , defeating American Taylor Fritz in the final. Alcaraz, however, stopped in the group stage, failing to reach the semifinals. This year, therefore, the Spaniard will only have 200 points to defend.

What does Sinner need to finish 2025 as world number one?

By taking a calculator and adding them all up, we can see how hard Sinner will have to work to maintain his lead. The Italian must defend 6,030 points (Toronto included) between now and the end of the year, compared to Alcaraz's mere 1,060. A true world-class feat.