'What happened to a female manager at the Bank of the Republic should have happened by now.'

María Mercedes Cuéllar is an economist from the University of the Andes, with a master's degree in Economic Development from Boston University, and a master's degree in Law from the University of the Andes.

She began her career at Fedesarrollo and founded the magazine Estrategia Económica y Financiera. She served as director of the National Planning Department, deputy minister of Finance, and minister of Economic Development.

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She was a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank of the Republic, then a pre-candidate for the Presidency of Colombia, president of the Colombian Savings and Housing Institute (ICAV), an organization that is no longer part of Asobancaria. The economist and biographer Isabel López Giraldo spoke with the interviewee for Portafolio to write the book María Mercedes Cuéllar An Economist Ahead of Her Time, by Penguin Random House Grupo Editorial.

What do you think of the International Monetary Fund's decision to suspend Colombia's access to the Flexible Credit Line?

I find this serious, as I don't think that line would be used, but it is a sign that something is not pleasing to the International Monetary Fund. Chapter 4 with the Fund has not been signed, and the reality is that the deficit is very high and could rise further, to levels comparable to the crises of 1982, 1999, and, more recently, the pandemic in 2020. This possibility, whether or not it can be used, is a guarantee from the International Monetary Fund that it sees that the economy is well managed. Not renewing it would do the opposite, and this would affect public debt, which has increased by 200 basis points.

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But this affects not only the public sector but also the private sector, and it guarantees that external obligations will be paid, an important factor for the economy.

Do you think the fiscal deficit will rise from 6.8% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 5.1% of GDP, as projected by the government for 2025?

I couldn't tell you the fiscal deficit, if it will be 5.1% of GDP, as the government claims, and it's doubtful this will actually happen.

Do you think it's time for the Bank of the Republic to lower its interest rate again?

I don't think the Bank of the Republic will lower its interest rate, and I would be surprised if it did. When there's more certainty about what's going to happen, the bank should lower the rate.

And what do you think about President Gustavo Petro's pressure on the issuer's board of directors to lower interest rates?

The board of directors of the Bank of the Republic should not give in to Petro's pressure, and it is important that the institutions, the courts, and the Congress of the Republic be respected.

What do you think about the idea of ​​advancing the withholding tax and using the unused money to balance the government's treasury?

It depends on what the government does. If they're going to adjust them and the damage isn't greater, then they're also repeating what they did in 2023 when they brought forward rent payments, and I find it surprising that they're doing it again. If they increase the deficit for the following year and take resources away from the private sector, it's serious. The costs become very high.

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Should this be one of the campaign points addressed by the presidential candidates heading into 2026? I think it should be a hugely important issue for the candidates, and it's only going to grow.

What do you think of the social and economic reforms the government has presented to Congress?

The government wanted change, but the problem was what kind of change it was. In healthcare, instead of improving the system, it's going downhill, and that's the problem of greatest concern. We had to look at what kind of reforms were needed, not just for the sake of change.

You've pioneered various positions and responsibilities throughout your professional career in the public and private sectors. Don't you think it's time for a female CEO of the Bank of the Republic and a female Minister of Finance?

The idea of ​​a female general manager should have already happened at the Bank of the Republic, and as for the Ministry of Finance, this country is sexist. But on the other hand, there are already many women in high-ranking positions in different aspects of Colombian social, scientific, and economic life.

Editor's Note: This interview was conducted one day before the Bank of the Republic decided to lower the Monetary Policy Rate by 25 basis points.

HOLMAN RODRIGUEZ MARTINEZ

Portfolio Journalist