Consulting firms predict that May will have the lowest inflation rate of Javier Milei's entire administration: it could break the 2% threshold.

Following the 2.8% recorded in April, private consulting firms began to adjust their inflation projections for May downward. Initial surveys indicate that it could become the month with the lowest rate since the start of Javier Milei 's administration , and some analysts even speculate that the final figure could start with the number 1 .

The best figure so far was in February, with 2.2%. Then, March saw a rise to 3.8%, driven by seasonal factors and uncertainty surrounding the agreement with the IMF. Now, with the moderate impact of the lifting of the restrictions and the decline in fresh produce, the situation is once again showing a clear slowdown.

According to EcoGo, the increase in food consumed at home was just 0.4% in the second week of the month. Based on this data, they project food inflation of around 2.5% for all of May. Equilibra, meanwhile, even reported a weekly deflation of -0.2% in its National CPI, attributed to the Hot Sale and the decline in seasonal items.

"The non-seasonal food and beverage category rose 0.5%, but was offset by a decline in the rest of the core CPI, especially seasonal items, which fell 2%," the consulting firm reported. Thus, the projection for the month is 2.2%, although they clarify that it could be further adjusted.

Among the factors explaining this slowdown are the decline in prices for fruits, vegetables, and some items linked to tourism, in addition to a near-zero impact on food consumed outside the home. This performance was crucial in keeping the overall index contained.

"The government has pulled out all the stops to ensure that May's figures are the lowest of the entire Milei administration," said Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina , director of Equilibra. Among the measures are a halt to regulated prices such as electricity and gas, a reduction in fuel prices, and indirect intervention in the futures market to contain the official exchange rate.

Also having an impact were the refusal to standardize collective bargaining agreements with increases exceeding 2% per month and the reduction of taxes on electronic products, which helped contain prices in several consumer goods sectors.

"With all these factors in mind, April's inflation was likely not an exception, but rather the beginning of a more steady downward trend," Sigaut Gravina concluded.

Sebastián Menescaldi , of EcoGo, noted that the bias is clearly downward. "We have a projection of 2.2% for May, but it could start at 1. The data from the second week is overwhelming: food prices are down almost 2%," he emphasized.

According to the analyst, this level of contraction is very difficult to reverse unless there is an unexpected exchange rate shock. Added to this is the impact of the aluminum price cut ordered by Aluar and the lower tax burden on imported goods, the effects of which could begin to be felt in the coming days.

Ricardo Delgado, from the consulting firm Analytica, confirmed that they lowered their estimate from 2.6% to 2.1%. "Meat prices didn't rise in the second week of the month, and fruits and vegetables fell. If the government maintains control over tariffs, May is likely to close with the lowest rate of the year and June will start at 1%," he predicted.

He also explained that the main adjustments have already been made in the private services segment and that no further significant increases are expected in that area in the short term.

The economic team is confident that the combination of fiscal discipline, targeted tax cuts, and regulated price controls will help consolidate the deflationary process without resorting to forced controls or freezes. Exchange rate moderation was also key to containing expectations and avoiding shocks.

Meanwhile, consumption and activity data are beginning to show some stabilization. The challenge now will be to sustain this momentum without slowing the economic recovery or compromising the balance of public finances.