The national government surpassed the first month of free dollar trading with stability and record deposits.

A month after opening the door to free dollar purchases for individuals, the government achieved what seemed unlikely in a country with a long tradition of currency turbulence: maintaining calm and consolidating confidence in the peso . The official exchange rate barely moved—from $1.155 to $1.158—between April 16 and May 16, while dollar deposits grew by US$1.2 billion, a strong sign of the support generated by the new phase of the economic program.

This result coincided with a slowdown in inflation, which fell from 3.7% in March to 2.8% in April, demonstrating that the initial jump in the dollar did not have a significant impact on prices, at least in the short term. The combination of fiscal discipline, clear market signals, and rising reserves allowed the country to pass the first test without incident.

A large portion of the new dollars that came in were purchased legally and deposited directly into bank accounts. The message was clear: the market trusts the government's ability to maintain stability without the need for controls.

Projections are also helpful. Between the US$12 billion from the IMF, the US$1.5 billion from other organizations, the export settlements from May to July—estimated at US$2.9 billion monthly—and the possibility of closing a repo with international banks for US$2 billion, the government is preparing to face the electoral period without any problems.

With this support, the return of the carry trade was consolidated. The latest report from the IEB Group highlighted that, with inflation declining, dual bonds and CER 2027 bonds became the preferred option for peso investors, banks, and insurance companies.

Despite the positive climate, one goal remains pending: the agreement with the IMF establishes that reserves must increase by US$3.7 billion by the end of June. But President Javier Milei remains firm in his decision not to intervene in the market to buy dollars unless the exchange rate drops to US$1,000 or less.

The official plan is to channel all necessary foreign currency through financial channels, through the issuance of dollar-denominated bonds payable in pesos. This strategy already proved successful during the first quarter of the year and is expected to be repeated during the second half of the year.

The government also announced that there will be no legalization of the use of the so-called "mattress dollars" for now, despite rumors circulating weeks ago. The president himself denied these expectations, and spokesperson Manuel Adorni clarified that any progress in this regard would require legal reforms that can only be approved by Congress.

The stability of the exchange rate and the return of the cheap dollar are already impacting other sectors of the economy. A surge in imports is expected, which could benefit industries and businesses, while reinforcing the idea that there is no imminent risk of devaluation.

On May 7, the government intervened indirectly to deflate dollar futures prices, another gesture aimed at defusing any expectations of a run. With the current situation stable and the future fixed, the scenario for investors and traders became more predictable and attractive.

Within this framework, the Executive is aiming to consolidate its economic leadership ahead of the electoral period. Without drastic controls or forceful measures, the Government demonstrates that it is possible to stabilize the economy through trust, financial transparency, and fiscal order.