Edomex, Nuevo León, and Jalisco show their faces in the formal labor market

The weakness of the country's formal labor market has reached its lowest level in more than two decades, excluding recessions; however, states such as the State of Mexico, Nuevo León, and Jalisco stand out in this bleak landscape.

According to figures from the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare (STPS), 87,287 insured jobs were created at the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) during the first half of 2025.

This level represented the worst result for the same period since 2020, when the pandemic destroyed 921,583 formal jobs; the fifth since 2009, also a year of recession, when 306,942 jobs were lost.

That is, it only surpasses periods of crisis. In fact, excluding these periods, it was the lowest generation of formal jobs since 2003, when 38,325 workers were registered with the IMSS in the first half of the year.

“In the first six months of the year, there was a cumulative increase of 87,287 formal jobs registered with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), equivalent to an increase of 0.39 percent. Since this information has been recorded, lower rates of formal private job creation have only been observed in the first half of the year on three occasions: 2020, when it fell 4.51 percent due to the pandemic crisis; 2009, when it fell 2.16 percent during the Great Recession; 2003, when it grew only 0.31 percent; and 2001, when it fell 0.15 percent,” Banco Base explains.

While the declines in the first halves of 2001 and 2003 do not coincide with years of recession in Mexico, the financial group adds, the period is recognized as one of stagnant growth, associated with the "dotcom" recession in the United States (March-November 2001), from which there was a slow recovery.

At the subnational level, of the 32 states, 19 created formal jobs, with the State of Mexico leading the way with 42,453 workers; Nuevo León (28,202) and Jalisco (16,846) rounded out the top three.

Only Mexico City, which lost 15,274 guaranteed jobs in the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), is missing from this group. Quintana Roo, Guanajuato, Baja California Sur, and Querétaro also stand out in the upper reaches.

At the other extreme, Sinaloa saw the steepest decline, with 36,068 layoffs, although it should be noted that due to the agricultural cycle, the first half of each year is negative.

This territory, invaded by insecurity, was followed by Mexico City, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Campeche, Zacatecas, Coahuila, Chiapas, Nayarit, Morelos, Michoacán, and Puebla. In Veracruz, the effect is, as in Sinaloa, stationary.

The exceptions

Compared to the first half of 2024, only three cases of acceleration in formal job creation in Mexico occurred, meaning more jobs were created this year than the previous year: Aguascalientes, Baja California Sur, and Colima.

Banco Base is concerned that the rates observed for IMSS-insured jobs are comparable only to times of crisis.

"However, it's also important to keep in mind that a slowdown in job creation is normal when the economy is close to full employment, which could be argued given that the unemployment rate estimated by INEGI is close to historic lows," he notes.