The war in the Middle East is already being felt at the pump: what could happen to inflation?

Located 14,400 kilometers from Argentina, the Strait of Hormuz, whose name derives from Persian and means date palm, is a 30-kilometer-wide arm of the Sea of ​​Oman that penetrates the Persian Gulf.

This is the obligatory passage of 21 million barrels of oil per day, just over 20% of global oil consumption, which stands at 100 million barrels per day.

It's defined as the world's most important oil center. And that fact alone explains the impact of the war in the Middle East. If its closure is realized, as announced, the global GPS will have to be recalculated.

For former Energy Secretary Jorge Lapeña, the question is how long this bottleneck, which has a strong impact on stock prices, can last . "This is a catastrophe of great impact, but we don't know how long it will last," he told Clarín.

In Argentina, the short-term outlook ranges from higher prices for energy exports, with crude oil prices that some predict could climb to US$100 a barrel, to a spike in inflation.

The price of oil is the backbone of countless costs, starting with freight, which, due to our geographic location, will make exports less competitive.

Juan José Carbajales, director of the consulting firm Paspartú, points out that an additional complication is the price of the liquefied natural gas that Argentina imports. Twenty-five percent of the world's LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

"The energy balance could improve, especially due to crude oil exports, which grew in volume but suffered from the decline in international prices," he notes.

Approximately 12% of global trade also passes through the strait, and "the costs of numerous inputs will rise," says the specialized consulting firm Quali.

Of course, it will be felt in your pocket. Before the US bombed Iran, gasoline prices had been raised by 5% at local pumps . Will Minister Caputo be able to lower the price this time?

According to the Iaraf (National Institute of Agricultural Production), the price of premium gasoline, currently at $1.166, is 23% behind compared to 2017. Caputo could, however, continue to delay the fuel tax, which he already halted to prevent prices from rising.