Winter holidays will deepen the dollar outflow, and 2025 could reach a historic record.

Due to the cheap dollar, which is driving travel abroad, 2025 is expected to close with a deficit of nearly US$11 billion , a record that would represent 1.6% of GDP.

The highest mark was in 2017 , with US$10.662 billion , surpassing the previous two years and the previous one, with US$8.547 billion in 2016 and US$8.400 billion in 2015; and US$8.000 billion in 2018. These were the four years with the largest foreign currency outflows in the last two decades.

Winter holidays will deepen the trend . Last-minute bookings are supporting the growth in demand for international destinations , which also surged due to the Club World Cup : although purchases have been on the rise since the dates were announced, there has been a spike in sales in recent days.

“At the rate we're coming, The outflow of dollars from outbound tourism could end the year at around US$10 billion . Between July and August , between US$1.2 and US$1.7 billion would be lost,” anticipated Marcos Cohen Arazi , economist at Ieral , of the Mediterranean Foundation .

Last April was the third year with the most outbound tourism , surpassed only by 2017 and 2018. In the first four months of 2025, US$ 4,831.7 million left , almost half of the total projection and 140% more than in the first four months of 2024 due to the departure of 6 million people, a year-on-year increase of 67.6% , according to Indec.

This resulted in a US$3.613 billion deficit in the Central Bank's "Services" account for "travel, tickets, and card payments." The government is seeking to differentiate this account in future publications so as not to conflate tourism spending with e-commerce purchases from platforms like Amazon or Netflix and Spotify.

Back in the summer, Ieral predicted “ an extraordinary rise in outbound tourism with an epic exchange rate deficit ” that favored foreign destinations, compared to domestic ones that became more expensive.

The situation is repeating itself, with up to three times as many travel bookings abroad compared to this time in 2024 at agencies such as Despegar and Almundo , which have Rio de Janeiro, Chile, Miami, Madrid, and Punta Cana among their most popular destinations.

“Searches for outbound tourism are growing 20% ​​year-over-year, according to Google Trends . The record outflow of dollars this summer will likely continue along this path ,” Cohen Arazi noted.

Analysts warn about the impact on the Central Bank's reserve levels , although Cohen Arazi emphasized that some of it will come " out of the cushion ," which will not necessarily affect the foreign exchange market.

"Part of this is funded with prior foreign currency holdings. However, upcoming movements will have an impact on planned year-end bookings , coupled with the appreciation of local prices, which has altered the tourism balance," analyzed Daniel Marx , director of Quantum Finanzas .

Analytica 's Ricardo Delgado , who estimated an average monthly outflow of US$1 billion , added an indirect impact, with the drop in dollar deposits due to the money in that currency in savings accounts used to pay for purchases abroad. "This US$1 billion is equivalent to the amount issued through the Bonte program per month," he explained.

" The dollar will remain relatively low ; I don't think the trend will change. People who can afford it will continue to go abroad, so the flow of payments will remain high . It impacts reserves, although some of it isn't affected by the use of saved dollars," agreed economist and former Deputy Minister of Economy Gabriel Rubinstein .

“In other deficits (1980, 1981, the 1990s, 2015, 2017, and 2018), demand for dollars was not sustainable . Is this different with Vaca Muerta and mining? The latter is more promise than reality, except for lithium, where exports are still low. And although the energy sector is growing, it is not enough to offset the weak performance of agriculture, industry, and services, which account for more than 80% of exports,” reflected Daniel Schteingart , Director of Productive Planning at Fundar.