Voting for the far right is growing among young men across Europe.
The coalition of the People's Party, the Socialists, and the Liberals managed to curb the far right in the European Parliament after last year's elections, but the far-right parties continue to recruit new members among their voters.
Its electoral success among younger men, a phenomenon well-known in Spain, is occurring throughout Europe, and also earlier and at a faster pace than the far-right message reached young men of previous generations. This is according to an academic article, in which researchers from four European universities participated, which confirms the increase in the far-right vote among men of the two youngest generations eligible to vote: the Z generation and millennials . Their support reached 21% in the June 2024 European elections, while among women in these age groups—16 to 44—it was 14%. The study is based on data from the European Electoral Studies, covering 27 countries and nearly 25,000 voters.
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The researchers, from the Humboldt University of Berlin, the London School of Economics, the University of Amsterdam, and Pompeu Fabra University, detail in their study that the gender gap—with a majority of male support—in voting for the far right is present across all generations, but is significantly larger among younger people. This is a consistent pattern across Europe, except in Denmark, Benelux, and Latvia.
“What you learn when you are young is a backpack that you carry throughout your life,” summarizes Toni Rodon.The data analyzed also show that the gender gap among young people in voting for the far right has occurred in all previous European elections, but never before.
The study, recently published in the Journal of European Public Policy , compares the 2024 results with those of European elections since 1989. The statistical model includes both the declared voting decision in the European elections and the probability of voting for a far-right party, regardless of the type of election. Its conclusions, they note, are applicable to the national level.
According to the authors, young men have always been more likely to support the far right, but among Generation Z, the far-right vote is not only coming earlier, but is also increasing at a faster rate than among older generations ( boomers and millennials), who see more gradual increases. The gender gap is also wider among Generation Z and millennials than among those born before 1981.
The authors explain the gender gap among the Z for economic, cultural and political reasons."The advantage of the applied statistical model is that you don't just have one young generation, but rather diverse groups of people who were between 16 and 24 years old at different points in time, and you can compare them with each other," explains Toni Rodon, a professor of political science at Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) and a participant in the study.
Among the explanations for the gender gap offered by the authors are the repercussions of economic concerns. “Young Europeans, for the most part, feel like losers in the face of globalization. There is a housing problem, precarious employment, and dependence on parental support, which affects both men and women, but boys are more vulnerable, more is expected of them, and they also feel unfairly losing out. This creates insecurity and dissatisfaction in them, while women are empowered. Furthermore, they consume different political information: girls more on Instagram, a friendly network, and boys on YouTube, where more aggressive messages are launched, their grievances are amplified, and they are mobilized,” Rodon points out.
Gender differences in political socialization are also noted, which impact values. Thus, women tend to have more progressive political orientations and are more sensitive to complying with social norms. "In general, they are more risk-averse than men; this is attributed to socialization, to how we have been raised, and these parties have aggressive rhetoric and represent a radical change if what they say were to be implemented, which is why women also distance themselves from their postulates," the UPF professor points out.
These economic and cultural reasons are a constant in Europe, but the extremists also tailor their message to each country. “A consistent theme is immigration, but Vox and Alternative for Germany also attack equality policies because of their importance in their context, and in Italy they've taken up the banner of housing,” explains Rodon.
Regarding the future, the authors point out that the increase in youth voting is due more to a generational factor than to age: everything indicates that when they grow up, they will not align themselves with later generations, but will maintain their ideological mental structure. The political preferences of young people are influenced by the historical and social context of their formative years, they point out, and "remain very stable" in adulthood. Each generation can develop lasting political attitudes based on the social and economic context or significant events they experience in their youth. "What you learn as a young person is a burden you carry throughout your life," Rodon summarizes.
So support for the far right "could increase dramatically in the future," they conclude, as today's young voters age. And the gender gap could narrow, but only because the female vote increases, as extremists join institutions and voting for them becomes normalized.
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