Pope Francis' centralization of power will make choosing a successor more difficult. 'He has limited the ability of cardinals to plot'

As the prayer session ended Monday, journalists had a rare opportunity to question top Vatican bigwigs about the gossip and revelations as they fled in search of their cars. Most responded with only cautious blessings.

“There seems to be no reason to talk about or even think about the pope resigning,” Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco told two Catholic journalists, then declined to answer POLITICO’s next question with a passive-aggressive blessing.

Yet, with morbid prudence, Vatican media outlets, especially in Italy, have already begun reporting on Francis’s illness as if the great man were already dead, feverishly churning out lists of papabili—literally, “papal” candidates who could succeed him. Some have even suggested that preparations are already underway for a conclave to elect his successor, and others have wondered aloud—despite protests from clerics like Bagnasco—whether the pope will follow in the footsteps of his predecessor Benedict XVI, the first pope in 600 years to resign.

But it all may be in vain. Thanks to the peculiarities of Francis’ reign, observers say this could be one of the most unpredictable papal succession battles in history — if not ever.

Lonely beings at another conclave

The typical image of a conclave, with cardinals crowded into the Sistine Chapel and cut off from the outside world until they elect a new pope amidst white smoke, is one of faction, intrigue, and aggressive, secret lobbying before and during the event itself.

While that system is still largely in place — apart from reforms in the 1970s that barred cardinals over 80 from voting — the cohesion of the College of Cardinals has been largely undermined by Francis, who has restricted the opportunities for cardinals to get to know each other and thus to conspire, said Miles Pattenden, a church historian and lecturer in the Department of History at the University of Oxford.

Pope Francis' nominations part of a larger plan

“For most of the church’s life, cardinals have been mostly Italian or European, and they have conspired freely, even unabashedly, in tight quarters. But Francis has appointed a total of 73 of the 138 voting cardinals from outside Europe, in places as far afield as Mongolia and the Republic of Congo. While ostensibly a move to reflect the changing demographics of the church, it was also strategic,” Pattenden said.

“Francis came up with pious rhetoric that the church needs to appoint Catholics from all Catholic communities and have broader representation,” Pattenden said. “But it was also a clever way of making sure that the cardinals didn’t know each other as well, that they didn’t call each other, that they didn’t interact with each other in their day-to-day affairs as much as they did,” the expert added.

Early in his papacy, Francis outraged many clergy by abolishing regular meetings of the College of Cardinals, known as consistories, and marginalizing once-influential cardinals from the United States.

These days, cardinals are “very isolated, solitary beings who roam like whales in the deep… many of them believe in God, so they are afraid to speak out,” said one well-connected Vatican official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, as were others in the story.

A certain cardinal in Rome noticed that he rarely met new colleagues from distant places and actually knew little about them.

“If the pope dies, they will know nothing about each other — basically just their name, education, basic information,” said another person familiar with how the cardinals operate.

Many now rely on one unlikely source for information about their distinguished colleagues: a website called the College of Cardinals Report, run by Vatican journalists Diane Montagna and Ed Pentin. The Internet-based research may not sound revolutionary to the average person, but what it offers cardinals is entirely new: a comprehensive online tool that summarizes the theological positions and backgrounds of all their counterparts.

On the website, they will find brief profiles of 200 cardinals and in-depth analyses of the beliefs and histories of more than 40, including 22 considered major papabili : under 80 (and therefore eligible) and influential enough to have a chance. Among the candidates: the staunch German traditionalist Gerhard Müller, the flamboyant American conservative agitator Raymond Burke, the Filipino progressive Luis Antonio Tagle and the wily Pietro Parolin, Francis’s top diplomat and longest-living ally.

For now, at least, the content seems to be fairly honest: The cardinal quoted above, caught Monday looking for a taxi amid the clergy exodus in St. Peter's Square, joked to POLITICO that he was relieved to see that the website was writing mostly nice things about him.

Pope Francis 2.0?

While the mass intrigue is not what it once was, there is another group of cardinals who operate in much closer ties and who are likely already collaborating with rival factions to advance their preferred candidate.

These are the so-called curial cardinals, who live in Rome and were appointed by Francis to run Vatican ministries, known as dicasteries. Many of these cardinals were chosen for their perceived loyalty, but their apparent united front around the pope hides a wild ideological divide, according to one person familiar with Francis and his inner sanctum. Many of these cardinals actively dislike each other, the person added, and at the time of the pope’s death, they are likely to be caught in fierce infighting — among liberals, German reformers, progressive outsiders and closet conservatives.

There’s no telling what will happen. Clerics might rally behind a younger candidate with better prospects, progressives might support a perceived moderate “puppet,” and conservatives might use their blocking minority — a third of the cardinals are enough — to reject any candidate to succeed Francis. After years of turbulence under Francis, others might simply want a “normal” pope.

“Francis has centralized power so much within himself that it will be very interesting to see what the power dynamics will be like when he is gone,” said a close observer of Vatican politics.

Perhaps the only certainty is that Francis himself is unlikely to exercise much, if any, posthumous control over the conclave. “Historically, power dynamics nurtured under popes tend to fall apart after their death and get recreated along entirely new, unimaginable fault lines,” Pattenden said.

“Pope Francis has appointed a lot of cardinals, but that’s not something that will ensure the election of a candidate like Francis,” agreed Andrea Gagliarducci, a longtime Vatican analyst. “The groups will split in some unpredictable way, because we’re talking about a group of elderly people isolated in a place with no contact with the outside world. Anything can happen at this point. They’ll look for someone they can trust, someone gentle enough not to get rid of them all. But most of the considerations will be pragmatic, not ideological,” the expert added.

In the 16th century, Giovanni Francesco Lottini, bishop of Conversano and a keen papal observer, reached similar conclusions in a little-known treatise on conclaves. The cardinals, he argued, “ultimately elect a pope against their will,” going together “where each one would not want to go alone.”

In other words, sometimes the old power brokers just panic. Instead of the Lord's will, many just follow the herd.

This article is based on a translation from Politico. Author: Ben Munster

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