Reshuffle in the latest poll. Poles have chosen a favorite

Political emotions are at their peak. The first round of presidential elections will take place on Sunday, May 18. The latest polls have shown which candidate has the best chance of winning in the final stretch.

Poll. Trzaskowski ahead of Nawrocki and Mentzen

The survey shows that Rafał Trzaskowski is currently the favourite. 32.4% of respondents would like to vote for the Civic Coalition politician. His most important rivals – Karol Nawrocki and Sławomir Mentzen – gained recognition of 24.8% and 11.8% of respondents, respectively.

The remaining candidates cannot count on double-digit support. Szymon Hołownia is seen as the president of the country by 8.1 percent of respondents. 5.6 percent chose Magdalena Biejat and 4.4 percent Adrian Zandberg. Grzegorz Braun gained recognition in the eyes of 2.6 percent of respondents and Krzysztof Stanowski – 2.1 percent.

Joanna Senyszyn is expected to receive 1% of votes, while Marek Jakubiak has 0.9% support. Among those who have declared their participation in the elections, 5.5% of respondents have not yet made a decision on voting.

The study was conducted by Research Partner on the ARIADNA Research Panel on 13-14.05.2025, on a nationwide sample of 1,080 people aged 18+, selected according to their representation in the Polish population for gender, age and size of place of residence.

Poll. Biejat before Hołownia. How did Trzaskowski fare?

The distribution of votes in the latest IBRiS poll for Onet is similar. The survey shows that Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki can almost be certain of participating in the second round of elections. In the first round , 32.6 percent would like to vote for the KO politician and 26.4 percent for the head of the IPN. This means that the difference between the candidates is 6.2 percentage points. The podium is closed by Sławomir Mentzen. The Confederation candidate enjoys support of 10.8 percent of votes.

There was a reshuffle just behind the podium. Fourth place went to Magdalena Biejat, who 6% of respondents would vote for. In this way, the politician from the Left overtook Szymon Hołownia, who in the vast majority of polls was just behind the top three. Currently, the head of Poland 2050 enjoys the support of 5.3% of respondents.

The remaining results of the candidates are as follows: Adrian Zandberg (3.4 percent), Grzegorz Braun (2.7 percent), Krzysztof Stanowski (1.6 percent), Joanna Senyszyn (1.5 percent), Marek Jakubiak (1 percent).

It is noteworthy that as many as 8 percent of respondents were unable to clearly indicate which politician they supported.

The IBRiS study commissioned by Onet was conducted on 12-13 May 2025 using the telephone method of standardized computer-assisted questionnaire interviews (CATI) on a research sample of 1,072 adult Poles.

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