Core inflation in May 2025 lowest in over 5 years

Core inflation in May 2025 reached its lowest level level since January 2020 – according to data from the National Bank of Poland. It was also the second month in a row when this measure of price growth was within permissible range of fluctuations from the inflation target.

According to data published today by the National Bank of Poland In May 2025, year-on-year inflation:

• Excluding food and energy prices , it was 3.3 percent, down from 3.4 percent in March. Economists had expected it to fall to 3.3 percent.
• after excluding administered prices (subject to state control) it amounted to 2.5 percent, compared to 2.7 percent a month earlier,
• after excluding the most volatile prices, it amounted to 4.6 percent, compared to 4.6 percent a month earlier;
• The so-called 15% trimmed average, which eliminates the impact of 15% of the basket of prices with the lowest and highest dynamics, amounted to 3.8%, compared to 3.9% a month earlier.

Thus, in May, the core CPI inflation was at its lowest level since January 2020 and only for the second time since then time was within the range of permissible deviations (i.e. +/- 1 percentage point) from 2.5 percent target of the National Bank of Poland.

However, the April core inflation reading still exceeded The 2.5 percent inflation target of the National Bank of Poland. This state of affairs continues for over 5 years. The last time inflation The baseline was for this purpose in October 2019.

- The National Bank of Poland calculates four indicators every month core inflation, which helps to understand the nature of inflation in Poland. CPI shows the average change in prices of the entire large basket of goods purchased by consumers. When calculating core inflation rates, the following are analyzed: price changes in different segments of this basket. This allows for better identification sources of inflation and to forecast its future trends more accurately. It also allows determine to what extent inflation is permanent and to what extent it is shaped, e.g. by short-term price changes caused by unpredictable factors – we read in the NBP press release.

While "wide" The consumer inflation index (CPI) in May was 4.0% higher than a year ago earlier . This result includes, among others, last year's increases energy and gas tariffs and some VAT increases on food. It is expected that in In Q3, CPI inflation will be closer to inflation rates base.

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