Expert: Trump Wants to Use Israel's Attack on Iran to Force Tehran to Deal

Much now depends on the US attitude in the development of the conflict between Israel and Iran, Israeli analyst Eldad Shawit told PAP. US President Donald Trump supports Israel and wants to use the attack to pressure Tehran to accept the nuclear agreement, but it is doubtful that he will succeed, the expert said.

The question arises whether the United States will take the initiative in this conflict, especially since it has broader capabilities than Israel to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, such as the underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordo, Shavit noted.

He added that Iran could now take a number of steps that the U.S. would have to respond to. Tehran could, for example, formally withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

According to Shavit, some factors indicate that the conflict will not end soon. The analyst admitted that it is difficult to estimate how long it will last, but the most important factor will be the extent of damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure caused by Israel. He added that it is too early to provide such assessments.

The Israeli expert expressed doubts that the conflict between Israel and Iran at this stage will cause significant changes in the course of the war in the Gaza Strip or a serious escalation with Lebanon's Hezbollah or Yemen's Houthis. It does not seem that any of the forces allied with Tehran could now replace Iran in response to Israeli attacks, the analyst commented.

Eldad Shawit has served for many years in Israeli military intelligence and government, and is currently a senior analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University.

Israel launched a series of attacks on Iran early Friday morning, declaring that they were targeting its nuclear and military facilities. Israel accuses Iran of accelerating its efforts to produce nuclear weapons, which would pose an existential threat to the Jewish state. Netanyahu said Friday that Iran has enough enriched uranium to build nine nuclear bombs.

Since mid-April, the United States has been negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran that would limit that country's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions.

Trump has stressed that the main goal of the United States is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. He has repeatedly threatened military and economic consequences if Tehran rejects the agreement, while emphasizing that he prefers a diplomatic solution.

According to media reports, Trump agreed to an Israeli attack on Iran, and the operation was coordinated with the US. The White House has not confirmed these reports. As recently as late May, Trump publicly said that he had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that an attack on Iran would be inappropriate because the US was close to reaching an agreement with Iran.

There have been five rounds of U.S.-Iranian negotiations brokered by Oman so far. Media reports have shown that the parties’ positions appear difficult to reconcile. Iran has rejected U.S. demands to stop enriching uranium.

A sixth round of talks was announced for Sunday. On Saturday, Iranian diplomacy said that after the Israeli attacks, there was "no point in continuing negotiations at this stage." Oman's foreign ministry then announced the cancellation of Sunday's talks.

US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said on Friday he wants to continue negotiations with Iran.

Trump on Friday praised the Israeli strikes and called on Iran to accept the agreement "before there's nothing left of this country."

Iran has been a party to the NPT, which prohibits nuclear weapons development since 1970. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found in 2003 that Iran was not fulfilling its obligations under the NPT. The agency formally repeated those allegations on Thursday. That same day, Iran said it intended to open a new uranium enrichment facility.

Israel and the United States have long accused Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapons program, something Tehran has consistently denied, insisting its nuclear program is purely civilian.

From Jerusalem Jerzy Adamiak (PAP)

adj/ ap/ bar/