Stępień from BNP: Greater uncertainty before the second round of elections may weaken the zloty

The exit poll results indicate greater uncertainty regarding the outcome of the second round of the presidential elections, which may cause the market to price in a higher risk premium for the PLN, so a weaker domestic currency is a more likely scenario for the coming days, says BNP Paribas economist Wojciech Stępień.

"The exit poll result indicates less room for a clear result in the second round of the presidential elections. Until now, the market has assumed that Rafał Trzaskowski's victory is the base scenario, which was reflected in valuations and stabilized the złoty. After the exit poll, uncertainty about the result of the second round has increased and the potential result in the form of a president from a camp other than the current ruling camp opens up the possibility for the market to value a higher risk premium in the case of PLN," Stępień told PAP Biznes.

"Therefore, a more likely scenario for the coming days is a weaker zloty, not necessarily much weaker, with the potential to rebound depending on how the situation develops in the next two weeks before the second round. In general, a scenario of greater divisions on the political scene in Poland may not be favourable to the zloty," he added.

According to the exit poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of TVP, Polsat and TVN, Rafał Trzaskowski received 30.8 percent of the votes in the first round of the presidential election, while Karol Nawrocki received 29.1 percent. Both candidates will advance to the second round of the election, which will be held on June 1.

According to Ipsos poll results, third place in the first round of the presidential election was taken by Sławomir Mentzen, who obtained 15.4 percent of the votes.

Fourth is - according to Ipsos - Grzegorz Braun (6.2 percent), fifth Adrian Zandberg (5.2 percent), and sixth place was taken by Szymon Hołownia with 4.8 percent of votes. (PAP Biznes)

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