This is what the markets will be living: a long weekend not only in Poland. Watch out for the Fed and the BoJ

A long weekend awaits investors from Poland and the US. The world's leading central bankers are not taking the day off: we will learn about the decisions of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, among others.

We will start the third week of June with a standard package macroeconomic data from China. The "communists" from Beijing will show us the "drawn from lines” of statistics on industrial production, retail sales and investment municipal for May. No one even pretends to believe in the truth of these numbers.

A public speech by the president of the Bundesbank is scheduled for 9:00. Joachim Nagel can give some hints as to how low they can go interest rates in the eurozone, which in June they were effectively reset to zero.

NBP will show May core inflation statistics. According to market economists' calculations, the price increase after excluding food, fuel and energy slowed to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.4% recorded in April. If this were true, it would be the second month in a row This result is within the permissible deviation from the NBP target of 2.5 percent . So almost a success.

At dawn we will have a decision by the Bank of Japan. It is true that another a cosmetic increase in ultra-low interest rates is expected in the coming months months, but the Japanese monetary authorities may suggest a date for it. For now The market consensus assumes maintaining the BoJ interest rate at 0.5%.

At 11:00 we will get to know the June report of the ZEW institute measuring the mood of German financiers. It improved dramatically in May after April crash. As you can see, the moods of institutional investors can be just as changeable as those of individual investors.

Later, we will have key May macro data from the US. First fire at 14:30 retail sales will go, after which only minimal growth (by 0.1% MoM). Three quarters of an hour later we will check the American industrial production, which is expected to grow just as slowly (also by 0.1% MoM). The supplement will be the June NAHB index measuring the sentiment of American developers. These from The beginning of the year has been falling sharply and in May they reached recessionary levels.

Japan's trade balance for May will be released overnight. In the morning (8:00) we will see the statistics of British CPI inflation, which has been rising for several months is rising again and hovering well above the Bank of England's 2 percent target. At 9:30 we should know the decision of the central bank of Sweden, which will probably take place in January ended the cycle of interest rate cuts.

At 10:00 the Central Statistical Office will present June's consumer sentiment indicators, also containing the results of a survey of household inflation expectations. These have remained at a relatively low and stable level for some time, which negates a gateway to further interest rate cuts in the NBP. An hour later, the final May HICP inflation statistics for European Union countries will be presented by Eurostat.

Americans will show the housing construction results at 2:30 p.m. as usual for May. The number of construction starts and issued contracts is expected to stabilize building permits. At the same time, weekly statistics of the number of applications for unemployment benefits. This it is worth taking a look at this report because we saw clear results here a week ago surprise up.

But the highlight of the market program will be the announcement from Federal Open Market Committee (8:00 p.m.) It is widely believed that the FOMC will once again will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% in the federal funds rate. At present, any significant chances for the next rate cut is indicated for September. Therefore, more important than the The announcement will be a press conference by Chairman Powell, which As usual, it will start at 20:30 Polish time.

This year's calendar has been arranged in such a way that the holiday celebrated in Poland Corpus Christi coincides with the federal holiday introduced four years ago called Juneteenth or Liberation Day (not to be confused with a specific thus, President Trump called it the day of introduction of prohibitive tariffs import ). As a result, there are no sessions on both the WSE and the Wall Street.

A typical working day The Swiss have it, they will make a decision on the level of interest rates at 9:30 interest rates at the central bank. After March decision, the SNB interest rate fell to just 0.25% and its possible cutting to zero would be a clear sign of the times. No change in interest rates is expected at Norges Bank (10:00) and at the Bank of England (13:00). The decision of the Turkish central bankers (also at 1:00 p.m.) remains unknown.

Theoretically it is a normal day at work in the financial markets. But both on Wall Street and GPW some investors may have a long weekend, which will limit turnover and market liquidity. Asian markets will function completely normally. There, the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on interest rates (at 3:00), which has been maintains them at record low levels. In turn, at 1:30 we will learn the Japanese CPI inflation statistics for May.

At 8:00 Germany will present the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May, and the British will present the results May retail sales. At 14:30 retail sales statistics will be released from Canada. At the same time, the June economic sentiment index for the region will be released Philadelphia (USA). At 4:00 p.m. we will see the May index of leading indicators Conference Board.

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