Trump has Europe cornered. We will lose billions of zlotys.

• The White House published on its website on Monday (July 28) a list of commitments made by the European Commission towards the American economy in exchange for reducing trade tariffs for the European Union to 15%.
• Prime Minister Donald Tusk published a post on the X portal on Tuesday (July 29) indicating that the EU-US trade agreement will result in losses of approximately PLN 8 billion for the Polish economy. Previously, the figure was estimated at as much as PLN 15 billion.
• Polish exporters, in turn, speak of several months of suspension of deliveries to the US, "freezing contracts until the situation becomes clearer" and being forced by contractors from across the Atlantic to bear the entire fiscal burden.

The European automotive, aerospace, and semiconductor industries have been spared the worst – they will be subject to "only 15% tariffs," not the 30% previously announced by Donald Trump. German automakers can therefore breathe a sigh of relief. Their tariffs will be reduced from the current 27.5% to 15% .

However, the real winners of this duel are not they, but American oil and gas companies, provided they are able to provide massive supplies of raw materials to Europe.

Trump triumphs. The White House claims he saved the American economy by providing it with a large market.

The preliminary agreement between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the US president, signed last Saturday (July 26) at Donald Trump's private Scottish golf resort in Turnberry, provides for Europe to purchase crude oil and liquefied natural gas worth a total of $750 billion . This sum also includes US nuclear fuel .

The commission also committed to new investments in the United States by 2028 totaling $600 billion , mainly for the purchase of American military equipment .

This colossal agreement will enable American farmers, ranchers, fishermen and manufacturers to increase exports, expand business opportunities and help reduce the goods trade deficit with the European Union, according to a recent White House press release.

According to Washington, the EU has committed to eliminating tariffs on all US industrial goods exported to the EU.

This new market access will stimulate economic growth across the entire U.S. economy – driving exports, increasing manufacturing, and enabling American companies of all sizes to reach millions of new customers across the Atlantic.

According to Brussels, this is the best possible agreement

The Trump administration estimates that the new tariff system will generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue annually and help redress the long-standing trade imbalance between the United States and Europe.

And although Brussels – and specifically its chief negotiator, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič – claims to have negotiated the best possible trade deal with Washington, member states are entitled to disagree.

The agreement is extremely one-sided, the base rate – 15% for the entire EU is higher than that for the UK (in the UK it is only 10%), and, moreover, the agreement does not cover metal exports to the US, which are still subject to prohibitive 50% tariffs – at least until both sides agree on a quota system .

We will lose billions, but it's better than war with an ally

And how will the Polish economy benefit from this forced compromise?

"American tariffs on European products have become a fact. They are half the size of those proposed by President Trump in April, but there is nothing to celebrate. According to preliminary estimates, Poland may lose approximately PLN 8 billion (PLN 15 billion was threatened). The losses will be severe on both sides of the Atlantic, but a difficult trade agreement is better than a senseless tariff war between allies," Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on Tuesday (July 29) .

Krzysztof Kopeć, president of the National Drug Producers, emphasizes that it is too early to assess what happened at Turnberry over the weekend, as the interpretation of this agreement remains unclear – both on the American and European sides, but for European drug producers and American importers, it may mean significant turbulence.

Tariffs could backfire on Americans by exacerbating existing shortages in the United States, a point recently acknowledged by former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb.

He stated, among other things, that "companies producing patented drugs can move production to the United States, but many generic drug manufacturers will withdraw from this market if tariffs are imposed on them, and then we will have drug shortages."

"Due to the low prices of generic drugs, their manufacturers would not receive a sufficient return on investment under current market regulations in the US. Therefore, it is unlikely that they will make significant investments after the tariffs are introduced. This means that generic drug manufacturers exporting essential drugs from Europe to the US will suffer economic losses due to the tariffs and may suspend production or exports to the US," Kopeć believes.

"The European Union has negotiated a trade agreement with the United States. It's hard to call it a success , though, because the terms we agreed to aren't necessarily favorable to EU producers," says Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist at the Lewiatan Confederation.

"Of course, we can say that it could have been much worse and that from August 1st we would have had tariffs of 50 percent. In the meantime, we will have rates of 15 percent, with certain exclusions for, among others, aluminum, steel, and pharmaceuticals," he adds.

According to him, the specter of tariff wars has been averted for now. "We are facing a period of stabilization in Europe," assesses the Lewiatan Confederation expert.

He notes that the agreement also includes a commitment to purchase American military equipment. "This is an interesting point, because the European Commission quickly abandoned the idea of arming itself internally, relying instead on European industry," Zielonka notes.

In turn, the director of the Polish Chamber of Commerce of Importers, Exporters and Cooperation, Iwona Wesołek, admitted in an interview with WNP that the months-long negotiations on customs duties resulted in the freezing of new export contracts to the USA .

"When news of the planned tariffs emerged, many US contractors suspended orders from Polish companies, awaiting developments. In turn, companies negotiating trade terms with American exporters were pressured to shoulder the burden of potential tariffs. Some orders were even withheld by the Americans. This intransigent approach made it difficult for Polish suppliers to decide to cooperate," Wesołek reports.

- Polish exports to the US recorded declines in sales volume until March of this year - admits Wesołek.

According to the Chamber, the sectors most affected by the tariff war include: automotive, industrial (including the production of agricultural machinery and medical devices), but also the food and furniture industries .

Piotr Soroczyński, chief economist of the Polish Chamber of Commerce and former deputy minister of finance, believes that the 15% tariffs are lower than previously announced, and their level will not significantly impact American demand , which in turn will not translate into a slowdown in exports. "Polish exporters to the US will be able to bear the burden of an additional 15%," Soroczyński estimates.

An agreement, not a contract. To be continued.

Both sides are expected to issue only a joint statement on August 1st. Concluding a formal agreement and ratifying it within such a short timeframe by the US and the 27 EU member states is simply not possible. The agreement will not be legally binding on both sides. Therefore, Donald Trump will implement the agreed tariff rates by regulation on August 1st.