The language of force is the only one Putin knows

During this kind of break, during which we await, one might say with some anxiety and even a certain disbelief, Donald Trump's final decision regarding the application of the harshest and most effective sanctions against the Russian Federation and its main economic partners, it will certainly be a time for analysis, reflection, and assessment. A time for affirmative consideration of what may be the Russian Federation's true objectives and strategic lines of action, given the current situation in the Ukrainian Theater of Operations.

What can we expect? What will Moscow be focusing on now? Specifically, what might be the Kremlin's main lines of action in the near future regarding the war in Ukraine?

From the outset, Putin's commitment to prolonging the war seems obvious. Everything points to the Russian president being resolutely determined to continue deceiving Donald Trump, trying to buy time through rounds of sham negotiations. This latest round, which took place once again in Istanbul late in the afternoon of the 23rd, lasted a mere 40 minutes. Showing his interest in peace is his sole objective. Is there a firm intention to negotiate a ceasefire that would create the conditions for a political solution to this conflict? It doesn't seem so. The idea is simply to avoid confronting Trump too much and to comply with the minimum requirements. Well, one might say, "for show."

Additionally, we have been witnessing an increase in information warfare actions focused on the so-called "donor fatigue" of Western donors, attempting to undermine their determination to continue supporting the Ukrainian cause, unabated, and for as long as necessary. Ultimately, the objective is nothing more than to reduce the flow of arms and ammunition support to Ukraine so that it is no longer able to effectively defend itself.

Political interference in the internal governance processes of European countries, seeking to heighten potential fissures and differences between them, has materialized as another clearly visible constant in the outline of the lines of action of the latest Russian propaganda campaigns. On the other hand, the continuous and massive Psychological Operations actions directed at Western populations, aiming to undermine their resolve to help Ukraine, have been a constant. The brutal daily attacks on Ukrainian cities, destroying infrastructure and their cultural heritage and identity, seeking to undermine the will of their populations through terror, have been another striking reality of this war. Carl von Clausewitz, in his famous treatise "V om Krieg," already described defenseless populations as the "soft underbelly" of armed conflicts, but he rightly asserted that without their commitment, no war would be possible to win. In short, these are typical actions of hybrid warfare, as they are now called, and which the Kremlin is so keen to use.

Moscow, although it claims to be not in the least concerned about the additional sanctions it may potentially face, has recently been doing everything it can to prevent them from being effectively applied. In this regard, and should these sanctions actually be imposed, the Kremlin, as a way to enhance their effect, has been strengthening relations with North Korea, China, India, and even Brazil, seeking exit strategies to circumvent them and ensure essential support for the war effort, avoiding the inevitable economic collapse.

Even in strategic and operational planning, harsh reality invariably overrides theoretical or conceptual speculations. Thus, achieving them is more important than idealizing campaign objectives deemed appropriate. And this is precisely where the crux of the matter lies. The truth is that, for the Russian Federation, the implementation of these objectives is not going according to plan. In other words, Russia, not only has failed to block arms supplies to Ukraine, but is also facing a visible increase in that same support. The US's return to this same aid effort has contributed decisively to this. On the other hand, the West shows no signs of "fatigue." The political determination of supporters of the Ukrainian cause is clearly evident in the relentless pursuit of solutions, aiming to provide them with arms and ammunition in a timely manner.

Given the above, it's more than obvious that the Russian propaganda machine will continue to poison the information space, daily planting news stories whose purpose is none other than to accuse the Ukrainian government of corruption, as happened in the recent crisis involving the agencies dedicated to combating corruption, NABU and SAP, which were infiltrated by Russian agents and their collaborators. Essentially, using propaganda and, more broadly, information warfare to promote anti-Ukrainian rhetoric in Europe and the rest of the world. In any case, the fact that both North Korea and China continue to grow ever closer to the Russian Federation is something that should raise our concerns and should always be taken into account when devising any future strategy aimed at resolving this conflict.

Being aware is only the first step. Understanding what's at stake, while a decisive step, is not the most important. The key is to act! That will make all the difference. To counter the aforementioned Russian strategy, it is crucial not to give up. Now, more than ever, fostering support for Ukraine, including the Air Defense Systems, as well as the much-desired long-range missiles, is imperative. It's too late!

Of course, the establishment of sanctions that decisively weaken the Russian economy and ultimately bring it to the brink of collapse is of paramount importance in this same context. The secondary sanctions conceived and promoted by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and promised by Trump within a period of up to 50 days, now ten, targeting countries like India, Brazil, and China, will be of paramount importance in resolving this conflict. While it is true that no war can be won without the unequivocal support of the population, it is equally true that no war can be won without an economy and production logistics capable of sustaining them.

And this is where Russia shows clear signs of weakness. It is printing currency at an alarming rate—15 trillion rubles to meet the current needs of its state apparatus. This amount corresponds, roughly , to a third of its General State Budget for 2025. The main consequences are a rise in the already high inflation rate and an obvious devaluation of the currency. Tax increases also seem inevitable. The imposition of the EU's 18th package of sanctions, which calls for a drop in the benchmark oil price from $60 to just over $47, will be another major unrest for the already impoverished Russian economy. Another push toward the abyss.

The time has come to use the only form of pressure Putin truly understands: the language of force. A ceasefire in the near future and the prospect of a just peace will only be possible through unrestricted military and economic support for Ukraine, and through the application of a truly effective package of primary sanctions against Russia and secondary sanctions against its main economic partners, depriving it of the necessary and indispensable resources to meet the demands of this demanding war of attrition. Putin will need to be definitively convinced that he will not be able to achieve his objectives through war, and that is in the hands of Europe and the US.

A victorious, robust, and independent Ukraine has become an essential condition for European stability. Investing in Ukraine as an independent political entity guarantees the security of Europe as a whole. It buys us the necessary time that will allow us to confront and overcome Putin's hegemonic ambitions, in a future that is just around the corner.