Without European defense there is no social Europe

NATO leaders met this Wednesday in The Hague, Netherlands, for a summit that could mark a historic turning point. The decision to set a new level of investment in defence — 5% of GDP — is more than just a symbolic number. It is a clear sign that security has returned to the centre of European concerns, not as an ideological choice, but as a response to reality. Even with a decisive push from the unstable US president. War has returned to the continent and with it the urgency to rethink Europe's role in the world.

Some see NATO as a Cold War remnant, an aging structure dependent on Washington. But what the Kremlin did to Ukraine and what it continues to do with missiles and drones over civilian cities is a stark reminder: the world is not safer, just more unpredictable. NATO, no matter how much it is criticized for its bureaucratic inertia or the imbalance between its allies, remains the only effective shield of military deterrence in Europe.

But this dependence on American leadership has become a vulnerability. Not because of a total lack of European capacity — which exists, albeit dispersed and poorly coordinated — but because of a lack of political will. The uncomfortable truth is that, after decades of peace, many European states have gradually become less responsible for their own defense. And now, faced with Trump’s zigzagging and the latent American unwillingness to give greater support to Ukraine, the strategic error of this complacency is becoming clear.

This is, therefore, the moment for Europe to decide whether it wants to be an actor or just a stage in the history that others write.

European strategic autonomy is no longer a technocratic slogan from Brussels. It is an existential necessity. For those who see themselves in a strong European project, socially cohesive, open to the world but capable of defending itself, the option is clear: more integration, more coordination, more investment in our own military capabilities — not to rival NATO, but to strengthen its cohesion. At least until it is possible to create a single European Armed Forces.

In fact, if Europe wants to remain relevant in NATO, it must be more than a political appendage of the United States. The mutuality of Article 5 requires credibility. And credibility requires resources, commitment and strategic vision. A group of states in the European bloc that delegates its defence cannot aspire to lead anything.

There is still an illusion to be dismantled: that peace can only be guaranteed through diplomacy. Diplomacy is essential, but it is only effective when supported by deterrent force. Putin has understood this better than many European decision-makers. His regime relies on intimidation, the internal division of democracies and the normalization of brutality as an instrument of foreign policy. To ignore this is to learn nothing from history.

At the same time, the war in Ukraine has revealed a Europe that is more united and determined than many had anticipated. The rapid response, the reception of refugees, the delivery of weapons and economic support have shown that the European ideal of freedom and solidarity is still alive. But it has also shown that this drive must be structured in a lasting commitment, not only to Kiev, but to the very idea of ​​European sovereignty.

NATO needs Europe, not only as a geographical space but also as a political and moral pillar. And Europe needs NATO, but above all it needs itself: to see itself as a power, not only economically but also geopolitically. This requires courageous leadership, conscious electorates and a strategic culture that goes beyond the short term.

This is not about militarising the European project. It is about ensuring its continuity. A social, green, digital and democratic Europe can only flourish if it is protected. Without security, there is no freedom. And without freedom, everything else falls apart.

The Hague Summit did not solve everything, far from it. But it marked the end of an era of strategic innocence. The commitment to strengthening defence, even if ambitious, is a political statement that cannot remain on paper. If Europe wants to, it can emerge from this war stronger, more united, better prepared for the 21st century. But it has to want to. And it has to act.

He writes for SAPO every two weeks on Thursdays // Tiago Matos Gomes writes using the old orthographic agreement