Socialists available to unlock AD

If there is a frenzy that has been gaining momentum within the PS in recent hours, it is about what to do in Parliament, given that an AD needs support to form majorities and approve some of the governing documents, such as the Government's program (if anyone puts it to a vote) or the State budgets. Senior party officials and leaders disagree with the line of the resigning leader, who said that he would not support a government led by Luís Montenegro, and they do not see any conditions for the party to do anything other than contribute to political stability at this time.

Sunday night continued with a strongly negative adjective within the party, which saw Chega fall just short of votes and on the verge of overtaking it in deputies in Parliament. And although the outgoing leader refused to make agreements with the PSD, arguing that he would not leave the opposition in the hands of Chega, the PS feels that it has no room to go down that path, after Sunday's results. The various socialists who have already spoken publicly and those interviewed by Observador now consider it risky to remain as a blocking piece of the system and no longer seem so concerned with the issue of Chega controlling the opposition, but more with the possibility that André Ventura's party could influence the executive power.

Francisco Assis was one of the party's voices that emerged this Monday to defend a "different attitude" in the PS, since "reality has changed" with these elections. Before the elections there was an "impasse", he argued on Observador radio , and now "there is a new political cycle" and the PS "must have a high sense of institutional responsibility ".

Francisco Assis. “Carlos César can take on leadership roles”

This Saturday, this is what Assis will tell the party’s National Committee, which will meet in Lisbon to discuss the political situation and define the method and timetable for internal reorganization. “We have political adversaries and we have a political enemy, an enemy of the regime , which is Chega”, “which is a risk for Portuguese democracy. The others are political adversaries , with different projects, but who converge with the PS on some essential issues, namely on the nature of the political regime, and even more difficult, in some cases, on the country’s economic and social model”, Assis pointed out, who is clear: “The PS must be a party willing to contribute to the political stabilization of the country.”

On Renascença radio, Álvaro Beleza also analyzed the results of the great socialist defeat in the same way, arguing that the party should take immediate action regarding the conditions of governability. “To avoid agreements with Chega, the PS must now make itself available to make the Government viable,” said the socialist.

The night before, Sérgio Sousa Pinto had already argued that the PS “should say that the PSD will not be dependent on Chega”, rejecting a party tied to the protest left. “The PS is the party that commands the left and only disciplines the festive left when it grows in the centre and imposes itself as a great national force”, he argued, warning of the risk highlighted by António Guterres in the past and a party that “allows itself to be imprisoned in a culture of sub-power”.

But the issue is not limited to this more moderate wing of the party; it also extends to members of the current leadership. On another television channel, also during election night, a member of the PS national leadership, Mariana Vieira da Silva, shared the same view and argued that the PS “must contribute to stability” and that the country “cannot be in elections in one or two years”.

He is not the only member of the national leadership with this stance; Observador spoke to other members who have a similar opinion. One of them is clear about the fate that the party is currently facing: “The PS must provide stability to the country .” The same leader believes that the PS now has a long road to “stabilization” ahead of it, and it will take time. Even though the parliamentary framework is unstable, this socialist considers it unlikely that the Government will not remain in office until 2029. Another leader told Observador that “the Government has an open mandate for a four-year term.”

At the top of the party, it is being repeated that “the PS is not in a position to make anything unviable” and the first name being mentioned for the succession, José Luís Carneiro , also defended, on Monday night on CNN Portugal, that the party “must be clear with regard to guaranteeing the viability of the Government, because that is what the citizens demand”.

The socialist, who has already said he is available to run again for party leadership, argued that the PS and AD should be “capable of establishing commitments that impose a pace of reform” in strategic areas: economic growth, attracting foreign investment, combating poverty and inequality and strengthening Portugal’s position on the issue of European defence. But he does not want a central bloc , which he considers “harmful” to the existence of the two parties.

In the PS, even before the elections, figures such as Alexandra Leitão had already signalled that, in the event of defeat, the PS should not be a problem for stability, at least in the initial phase. “The defeated party should provide stability in the initial phase”, she said in an interview with Renascença in April. This Sunday night, on CNN Portugal’s programme “The Principle of Uncertainty”, she simply said that “the PS will always be a responsible party”. Also this Monday, Pedro Silva Pereira , on RTP3, defended that the PS should form “a constructive opposition” and that it should be “available for dialogue and conversation”, although he said that maintaining the conditions for governability should be attributed to the AD.

And as Leitão had already argued in the past, the socialist also said that the PS “at the beginning of the legislature, when the Government’s programme is being discussed, the PS must make it viable”. As for the remaining governance documents, such as budgets, “it depends on the Government”, the socialist responded, not waiving “the AD’s responsibility” in this regard, saying that it will be up to the PS, at each moment, to make the “assessment of governance”. The socialist also criticised Pedro Nuno Santos for having “put forward a position on strategy that will condition the position” of the next secretary-general: “I didn’t think that was very correct”.

Among the party's district leaders, the position is also one of caution regarding extreme positions regarding the AD. One leader told Observador that he does not “feel that the PS is in a position to place itself in a barricade position and has to reflect on its role” in the Government's relationship. “The PS is not in a position to be making anything unfeasible”, adds another prominent socialist source on the same subject.

Another prominent socialist argues that the PS should “dive deep” in the coming times and, in the meantime, “make the Government viable, approve the President of the Assembly of the Republic and the first State budgets. It has no existence for anything else”, he concludes.

The consensus seems closer on this issue than when it comes to the timetable for the future reorganization of the party. Here, the PS is divided , as Observador had already reported shortly after Sunday night. There are socialists, namely mayors and federation presidents, who are especially worried about an internal struggle in the run-up to the local elections, an election that is especially important for the PS, which leads in the number of councils.

PS in absolute shock. Pedro Nuno leaves and leaves the party lost between what to do with AD and whether to move forward with direct elections now

Several socialists — and even supporters of Carneiro, such as Adalberto Campos Fernandes — see advantages in waiting for the local elections, especially because they believe that the party should first reflect deeply, which would not be compatible with this electoral period that is already underway. Also tonight, on CNN Portugal, António Mendonça Mendes said that “this is the time for reflection and not for haste”, in relation to the current situation of the party, arguing that the party should make internal decisions “without prejudicing the local elections”.

“There is no time for direct elections and internal disputes,” said another party source, who points out that “haste has already led to failure,” referring to the hasty succession of the Costismo party in 2023. “This is not the time to be counting guns ,” another leader told Observador, who even points out disadvantages in electing a general secretary who “will enter the most difficult phase, with the Budget and local elections ahead.” “Starting an internal dispute before the local elections is terrifying,” describes another district leader. “If the result is bad, the new general secretary will immediately start losing,” says another leader.

But José Luís Carneiro, for example, argued in an interview he gave to CNN Portugal this Monday that direct elections to choose the new leader of the PS should happen “as soon as possible”. A party source noted Carneiro’s “haste”, which he saw as an “attempt to limit the space”: “He knows that this is the only opportunity he has”. After all, if the party has a majority that is not very interested in seeing the party in an internal dispute in the middle of the local elections calendar – which has already been interrupted by these legislative elections –, an advance by Carneiro in the short term could hinder potential challengers.

The division led the party president to make some inquiries with local authorities and party leaders and his preferred proposal is to move forward with the election as soon as possible, but leave the congress until after the local elections, according to Observador. Renascença radio is talking about direct elections in June.

After the political debate that the PS will hold next Saturday, Carlos César will propose separating the two moments, allowing the direct elections from the local elections and postponing the congress (with the election of delegates and national bodies) for a later date. And with this he tries to bridge the gap between those who do not want the dispute over the local elections and those who fear a long period without a leader. That same Saturday, Pedro Nuno Santos will step down as leader of the PS and César will remain — as dictated by the statutes — at the head of the party until a new general secretary is appointed.