Market reduces GDP and dollar projections through 2027, according to Focus
Central Bank of Brazil (Credit: Rafa Neddermeyer/Agência Brasil)
The financial market reduced its projections for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and the dollar in 2025, 2026 and 2027, according to data released by Boletim Focus on the morning of Monday, the 8th. Expected inflation for 2026 and 2027 also decreased, although the forecast for this year was maintained.
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Analysts reduced their GDP projections from 2.19% to 2.16% in 2025. For 2026, the estimate fell from 1.87% to 1.85%. In 2027, it was reduced from 1.89% to 1.88%.
The outlook for the dollar followed the movement, with the expected price falling to R$5.55 at the end of 2025 and to R$5.60 at the end of 2026 and 2027.
The IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) projection for 2025 remained at 4.85%, interrupting a 14-week streak of consecutive declines. For the following years, however, the downward trend continued, with estimates for 2026 and 2027 falling to 4.30% and 3.92%, respectively.
In contrast to these adjustments, the monetary policy outlook remains largely stable. Expectations for the Selic rate remain anchored at 15% by the end of 2025, 12.50% by 2026, and 10.50% by 2027.
The report is a weekly publication released by the Central Bank of Brazil that serves as one of the main barometers of financial market expectations regarding the Brazilian economy. The document summarizes the projections of dozens of analysts and institutions for the country's most important economic indicators.
Every week, financial institutions, including banks, asset managers, and consulting firms, enter their own projections into a Central Bank system by the end of Friday. The monetary authority then consolidates all the information received and calculates aggregated statistics.
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