Survey tests scenarios with Lula against the Bolsonaro clan for 2026; see the results
The Paraná Pesquisas institute released, this Tuesday 24th, its new electoral survey for 2026. The survey has 2,020 interviews conducted between June 18th and 22nd and has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
The main first-round scenarios tested monitor Lula's (PT) performance against members of the so-called Bolsonaro clan. The list is formed by the ineligible Jair , the former first lady Michelle , the deputy on leave Eduardo and the senator Flávio .
The scenarios against the former president and the former first lady are tight, with a technical tie. In the disputes against the former captain's sons, Lula has the advantage.
The survey also monitored the voting intentions of 'alternative candidates'. The list includes governors Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), Ronaldo Caiado (União-GO), Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR) and Helder Barbalho (MDB-PR). Former governor Ciro Gomes (PDT-CE) was also tested.
See the results:
Scenario 1
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 37.2%
- Lula (PT) – 32.8%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 10.3%
- Ratinho Junior (PSD) – 4.6%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Union Brazil) – 2.9%
- Helder Barbalho (MDB) – 0.7%
- Don’t know/no opinion – 4.8%
- None/blank/null – 6.7%
Scenario 2
- Lula (PT) – 33.5%
- Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) – 30.2%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 11.5%
- Ratinho Junior (PSD) – 5.7%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Union Brazil) – 4.6%
- Helder Barbalho (MDB) – 0.9%
- Don’t know/no opinion – 5.4%
- None/blank/null – 8%
Scenario 3
- Lula (PT) – 34%
- Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans) – 24.3%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 13.5%
- Ratinho Junior (PSD) – 6.9%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Union Brazil) – 4.3%
- Helder Barbalho (MDB) – 1%
- Don’t know/no opinion – 5.6%
- None/blank/null – 10.5%
Scenario 4
- Lula (PT) – 33.8%
- Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) – 21.3%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 13.2%
- Ratinho Junior (PSD) – 8.5%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Union Brazil) – 5.5%
- Helder Barbalho (MDB) – 1.1%
- Don’t know/no opinion – 5.7%
- None/blank/null – 10.8%
Scenario 5
- Lula (PT) – 33.8%
- Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) – 20.4%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 13.8%
- Ratinho Junior (PSD) – 9%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Union Brazil) – 5.8%
- Helder Barbalho (MDB) – 1.1%
- Don’t know/no opinion – 5.9%
- None/blank/null – 10.3%
Scenario 6
- Lula (PT) – 34.2%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 15%
- Ratinho Junior (PSD) – 13.9%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Union Brazil) – 7.1%
- Roger Marinho (PL) – 6.8%
- Helder Barbalho (MDB) – 1.2%
- Don’t know/no opinion – 6.4%
- None/blank/null – 15.5%
In the second-round races tested, Lula repeats his negative performance against Bolsonaro and Michelle, falling behind the duo in direct races. The PT candidate has 39.7%, compared to 46.5% for the former captain. Michelle, in turn, has 44.4%, compared to 40.6% for Lula.
The PT candidate is recovering and appears numerically ahead in the disputes against the other two members of the clan: 41.6% of voting intentions, compared to Eduardo's 39.1%; and 42.1%, compared to Flávio's 38.4%.
Lula is still behind Tarcísio, if this were the second round (43.6% to 40.1%), but surpasses Ratinho Jr. (41.2% to 37%), Rogério Marinho (41.9% to 31.2%) and Ronaldo Caiado (41.4% to 33.5%).
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