Developers are scaring with a sharp increase in prices. Should you hurry up and buy an apartment?

Experts from Plus Development Group believe that due to the lack of quality projects, square meters in new buildings will become 15-20% more expensive. Prices will rise as soon as the Central Bank, continuing to reduce the key rate, brings it to 12% by 2027. The opinion of a major developer is quoted by the professional community Unified Register of Developers.

Economists are very skeptical about such forecasts, and the head of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Anatoly Aksakov , even accused large developers of manipulation.

The parliamentarian did not rule out that it was the developers who, having lost their preferential mortgages at the end of last year, spread the rumor about the upcoming freeze on deposits. In this way, they planned to lure trillions of rubles to their market, which Russians had “hidden” in banks at unprecedentedly high interest rates.

Deputy Chairman of the Board and co-owner of Sovcombank Sergey Khotsimsky called the information leak "brilliant creativity" and the banker did not take offense at the developers. They say that everyone is fighting for survival by all available means.

Yandex Real Estate records that since the end of spring, the cost of apartments in new buildings has not predictably increased. More precisely, housing has increased in price at the margin of error: +0.8%. And this is despite the symbolic, but still, reduction of the key rate.

The median price per square meter in the country's megacities is about 187 thousand rubles. But Moscow, of course, is an exception. According to the results of July, the average weighted price per Moscow square meter slightly exceeded 366 thousand rubles (+1%).

The analytical service Real Estate Market Indicator shows that the Moscow market as a whole is predictably stagnating. And with an average price of 278.1 thousand per square meter, the cost of capital apartments increased in July by only 0.2%.

"And even this growth is largely due to the low-cost segment, in which the most affordable offers continue to be washed out," the authors of the IRN review note. Apartments in panel buildings are being washed out of the market, while modern monolithic housing has shown a minus.

After the cancellation of preferential mortgages, sales of housing in new buildings have lost 26% this year. Market mortgages with average rates of 25% are more dead than alive. And their share is a paltry 14%. The market drivers — family mortgages — currently account for more than 80% of transactions. Almost the same percentage is given by purchases made in installments.

As for the impending shortage of square meters on the market, there are no problems with lots. The developers themselves talk about overstocking and call the supply excessive.

Mikhail Khorkov, Head of the Analytics Committee of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers, notes an increase in the volume of housing under construction. This trend is recorded against the backdrop of a noticeable drop in the number of transactions and a reduction in investment in new projects.

"Amid weak sales, developers began to build more slowly and deliver buildings later. As of the end of July 2025, 118.4 million square meters were in progress. This is 3% more than at the end of last year and 2.5% more than in July 2024. The share of unsold housing in most markets is high, and companies have reserves to increase supply if the market context changes," the expert explains .

Market participants expect the first signs of positivity this year. With the key rate reduced to 18%, experts predicted that by autumn this year, demand for commercial mortgages would slightly revive. By the end of the year, apartments in new buildings will add 2-3% to the current price.

But a mortgage at 20-22% per annum is still an ineffective tool. Mikhail Khorkov does not expect a sharp transfer of deposits to the real estate market. If there are any shifts, then buyers will spend part of the people's millions on paying for transactions concluded in installments. In addition, the expert adds, 95% of deposits are small amounts (up to 1 million rubles).

Mikhail Khorkov expects a more confident recovery of the real estate market no earlier than 2026.

“But developers are now hammering home the false idea that following the reduction of the ‘key’, people will start to withdraw their deposits and invest in real estate again.

In reality, nothing like this happens: the money will remain in deposits at 16-18% (or even at 10-12% in the near future), and the annual income from real estate transactions will bring a maximum of 4-5%. And a lot of problems.

As for us, mere mortals, we have been taught another lesson not to succumb to fashionable fads, hypocritical TV and media directives, and to remember that in a crisis the main thing is not to earn, but to save. Even if no one calls a crisis a crisis,” comments economist Nikita Krichevsky .