Salaries hit the ceiling: why have wage earners' incomes slowed down?

Compared to March of this year, the financial appetites of Russians looking for a new job have grown by an average of 6%, or 4,300 rubles. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the recruiting company Head Hunter based on an analysis of active resumes and open vacancies.

Market participants note that the median salary is approximately the level below which people's quality of life begins to noticeably decline. With the current inflation rate, citizens are increasingly focusing not on the poverty threshold, officially set in the Russian Federation in 2025 at 17,773 rubles , but on the median salary.

An income below this level formally covers the subsistence minimum, but, according to many citizens, it is no longer enough for a normal life for most people. And job seekers reflect these expectations in their resumes when looking for work.

As Igor Niesov, head of the Digital Profiling Department, member of the Academic Council of the Academy of Social Technologies, candidate of psychological sciences, doctor of philosophy (PhD), told NI, the trend is quite understandable.

“There are several economic reasons for the growth of wages, including a high level of uncertainty, inflation, and also an imbalance in wages, for example, for couriers, which greatly affects the perception of the value of money,” the expert noted.

According to Tatyana Kozhevnikova , an expert in the field of personnel management at the P. A. Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, the median levels of expected and proposed salaries turned out to be almost at the same level, and the main reason is the “cooling” of the labor market, associated with the slowdown in economic growth and the reduction in the number of open vacancies in a number of industries. But, in order to better understand how salary expectations are formed, it makes sense to look at the index values ​​for individual professions.

“In those areas where there are many workers in mass specialties who live from paycheck to paycheck, have no savings, pay off loans and cannot afford not to work even for a few weeks, the expected and offered salaries really do equalize very quickly, including because job seekers, seeing the approximate salary level in advertisements, indicate the same amount in their resumes so as not to be excluded from the search circle,” she notes.

Analysis of resumes for mass specialties is now carried out by algorithms according to strict criteria, including the level of salary expectations. There are relatively few such professional areas, but the vast majority of workers are employed in them, which affects the median values. These are raw material extraction, domestic staff, workers, construction and the hospitality industry.

"If we take professions with high qualifications and income, then salary expectations exceed the offer, because job seekers have a financial safety net and are ready to wait for some time for a vacancy with a suitable salary level to appear. This applies, for example, to senior management, IT, procurement, sales, strategy and investment, lawyers, financiers and HR specialists," says Tatyana Kozhevnikova.

In those areas where there is a continuing shortage of personnel (for example, in agriculture and transport), the salaries offered exceed those expected.

"If we talk about industry, the fastest growing sectors are manufacturing, including the production of computers and other electronics, as well as motor vehicles. High growth rates are shown by defense industry enterprises. Accordingly, if you have the required qualifications (for example, an experienced engineer or welder), you can count on high income in the near future in these sectors," the analyst is convinced.

Not everyone manages to find a good permanent job, so almost every second resident of our country today works part-time. According to the results of surveys by the Avito Job service, regular part-time jobs provide able-bodied citizens with a monthly increase of about 20% of their income.

According to hh.ru analysts, the number of vacancies in the country fell by 21% over the past year, and the number of resumes by 34% . If in April 2024 there were 3.3 resumes per active vacancy, now there are already 5.6 . The demand for HR specialists has noticeably decreased over the year. Employers' interest in hiring employees in the restaurant and hotel business, medicine, pharmaceuticals, construction, real estate, and retail remains high. Retail specialists, as well as blue-collar workers, are in demand.

Compared to March of this year, the number of vacancies for trainers, beauty industry professionals, representatives of science, education and agriculture is growing. At the same time, the number of vacancies for lawyers, procurement and insurance experts is decreasing.

As Anton Baksaraev , CEO of the architectural design company Vector Project, told NI, the leaders of the global IT market continue to cut staff amid the growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).

“Russia is also following this path, expanding the areas of application of AI, which in the long term will lead to a reduction in production costs and the release of personnel,” the expert believes.

Market participants note that many employers are trying to solve the problem of scarce and expensive personnel using technology in many industries. For example, in the near future, couriers in 20 regions of the country will be replaced by an army of delivery robots .

According to Anton Baksaraev, areas where AI cannot replace humans will be promising for today's schoolchildren, for example, doctors, architects, or blue-collar workers.

"Today, turners, fitters, engineers, provided they are highly qualified and have developed their skills, are not inferior to white-collar workers in terms of their income level. A good secondary education will always be in demand, even with a high level of AI penetration," notes the source of "NI".

Expert Baksaraev emphasizes that AI cannot replace humans partially or even completely in all areas.

"AI will never replace a surgeon, although digital assistants already allow us to improve the quality of receiving and processing medical documentation. In the architectural field, they have long been thinking about creating automated systems for creating drawings, but the cost of an error in our field is too high. Until now, drawings in our field are done by people," he noted.

According to his observations, the labor market is now “cooling down” after overheating over the past 1-1.5 years.

"Salaries have stopped growing since the beginning of the year, employers simply cannot pay more. Each company finds the best solution for itself - some change business models, others increase business automation. In any case, there is simply nowhere for salaries to grow further," the expert is convinced.

Zarema Omarova , a dermatologist, cosmetologist, and co-owner of Dr. Omarov’s network of clinics, agrees with the opinion of the representative of the real sector of the economy.

“Healthcare is one of the leaders in the use of AI - digital assistants are emerging, telemedicine is developing, and automation is improving the quality of receiving and processing medical documentation.

At the same time, it is clear that AI will never be able to replace a doctor. AI will speed up access to knowledge bases, provide tips on clinical protocols, and improve the quality of decoding the results of tests and studies. But only a personal appointment allows a doctor or cosmetologist to make a diagnosis and prescribe treatment," the expert is convinced.

According to Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova , medical education in our country is now the absolute leader in targeted admission of applicants. But not all graduates go to work in state clinics after graduating from universities, which is why there has been an acute systemic shortage of personnel in healthcare for several years in a row.

"It is very difficult to find qualified doctors and cosmetologists. The shortage of personnel is one of the main reasons for the growth of salaries in healthcare," the source told NI.

Against the backdrop of a shortage of qualified medical personnel, doctors' salaries in some clinics reach 500,000 rubles and higher. Analysts believe that in areas where AI cannot replace humans, the growth of salary offers for highly qualified personnel will continue, Zarema Omarova is convinced.

According to analyst Tatyana Kozhevnikova , in the medium term, such industries as telecommunications, banking, cybersecurity, unmanned transport, e-commerce and other areas of the economy where digitalization is proceeding at the fastest pace and where there will always be a demand for specialists with a technical education may be of interest.

“In connection with the above, the best strategy for future students is to choose a university and specialization that will allow them to acquire knowledge and skills in the STEM category (science, technology, engineering and mathematics),” notes the NI interlocutor.

According to her, all specialties related to human science (medicine, genetic engineering, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals) are also very promising.

“People want and, most importantly, intend to live longer, so in the coming decades there will be a need for a large number of specialists in maintaining quality of life, creating medicines for fatal diseases, producing prostheses and other high-tech care for life and health,” believes Tatyana Kozhevnikova.

According to her forecasts, the personnel shortage will persist in most industries and professions, so it is easier to name those industries in which there is no shortage, that is, in which, according to the index stats.hh.ru/, there is an excess of candidates compared to open vacancies. These are lawyers, advertising, marketing and PR specialists, as well as people working in the entertainment industry, beauty salons and sports clubs.

"Accordingly, in all other industries there are prospects for salary growth. This applies not only to qualified specialists, but also, for example, to couriers, who in large cities receive salaries comparable to university graduates. The most win-win option is to obtain qualifications in those areas that are developing in connection with the use of so-called exponential technologies, that is, technologies that stimulate the explosive growth of a particular sector of the economy. These include, for example, artificial intelligence and neural networks, the Internet of Things, unmanned transport, including UAVs, blockchain, augmented and mixed reality," the expert summed up.