Tubers with a taste of hype: the potato hype for which there is no reason

With astonishing speed, popular Russian experts have reoriented themselves from the problems of international politics to the issues of potato growing. Leaving them to idle talk and frivolous conclusions, let us look at the data that will paint a complete picture and allow us to understand the situation.

According to Rosstat, as of May 24, 2025, the average price of a kilogram of potatoes was 94.82 rubles. But on January 9, it was still at 57.33 rubles. A sharp jump. What caused it? A shortage. And what caused the shortage? Reading opinions on the reasons for the potato shortage is a pleasure. Here are “lazy Russians” who do not want to fertilize their summer cottages and collect Colorado beetles by hand, and “last year’s terrible crop failure”. Some even agreed that “the army needs potatoes more”, as if until now soldiers had been squeamish about potatoes, and now they suddenly pounced greedily. But what if at least one of these opinions pulled out of thin air accidentally turns out to be true? We’ll see.

In 2024, the gross potato harvest in the industrial sector amounted to 7.3 million tons, which is 1.2 million tons, or 14.5%, less than in 2023. Maybe these percentages were not enough for us? If we consider that the average potato consumption per person is 54-55 kilograms per year, then the whole country needs more than 8 million tons. But why did not the government worry about this issue immediately after last year's harvest? 7.3 is less than 8, obviously! Because industrial potato growing is not the only supplier of root crops to the market and to the table. There are also private farms, farmers, and summer residents. And the result of 2024 did not foreshadow problems. For example, in 2023, the industrial sector harvested even less - 7.2 million tons, in 2021 - 6.6 million tons. And from 2001 to 2010, the gross harvest did not even reach 6 million tons. For example, in 2010, only 3.4 million tons were grown. And no potato apocalypse happened. So, it is not about the harvest.

Maybe the imports are a let-down? But the potato import is greatly overvalued by the public. Sellers have long and successfully used the peculiarities of buyers' perception, displaying goods with the worst price-quality ratio at eye level. And the masses buy what is right in front of them, not noticing similar goods at lower prices, standing on the shelves below. So the cute imported potatoes, displayed in the right place, are noticed by everyone. Not only ordinary people, but also experts are sincerely indignant: "Only imported goods are on sale, only Egyptian ones, there are no our potatoes at all." In fact, even in that very lean year of 2010, potato imports amounted to 570 thousand tons, that is, less than 17% of Russian production. And, for example, in 2020, the share of imports was generally insignificant - about four percent.

Besides, Russia not only imports potatoes, but also exports them. Last year, the volume of Russian potato exports increased by 7.5 million dollars, 267.3 thousand tons were exported to other countries. Don't be surprised: Russia both imports and exports potatoes. This is normal, this is a global trend. Belgium and the Netherlands generally throw more potatoes on the world market than they grow. That is, they resell someone else's - why not, if there is demand. So, the harvest in Russia is not the worst. Everything is as usual with imports and exports. Maybe there is more steel? Also no. Potato consumption per capita is decreasing year after year, and quite significantly. If in 1980 there were 117 kilograms per domestic eater per year, then in 2010 only 66, and now even less. It turns out that things are going as usual, there are no physical reasons for either a deficit or a price jump. What's the catch?

The key to understanding the problem is provided by the situation in the Bryansk region. The local governor opened an autumn agricultural fair... in the spring - he provided regional agricultural producers with the opportunity to sell their products next to a large hypermarket in the regional center. And then, messages appeared in local public groups: "Inside the store, potatoes are 120, outside 50." That is, there are potatoes. And the price for them is not exorbitant. Let me remind you that in 2021, and in the fall, potatoes were sold for 40 rubles per kilogram. But the in-demand product can only reach the consumer with Bryansk tricks. Retail is a big business that wants to unify all procedures in order to increase profits. It does not really care about the troubles of producers and buyers. For example, back in 2018, large chains closed the product line "unwashed potatoes, Russia". If you want your product to be on the shelves, invest in washing equipment. And also in packaging, so that the "demanding buyer" has options - a kilo, two, five... And, of course, calibration equipment is also needed so that the tubers are identical, one to one. But such investments, of course, will affect the cost. It turns out that the "demanding buyer", whose interests are represented by large retail businesses, himself demands an increase in the price of products and strangles small producers who cannot afford, with the current bank interest rate, to purchase equipment. But, in fact, the buyer demands something different. It is not he, but retail that dictates the rules.

But there is another side to the "potato crisis". Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has spoken at length about the potato deficit. With peasant frankness, he pointed out that the buyer wants to buy potatoes cheaper, but the farmer needs to sell them at a higher price, otherwise he will not be able to buy fuel, fertilizers, or pay tractor drivers and combine operators adequately. Lukashenko also reminded that one should not sell off all the potatoes indulging in the rush demand, and that some should be left for seeds. At the same time, the Belarusian president called on the public to be patient until the new harvest and ironically noted that Belarusians are not suffering too much from the newfangled deficit, and look quite prosperous: "They must have found a gold mine."

And Alexander Grigorievich is right: all the hysteria around the potato deficit is rather far-fetched, induced. If you look at the buyers at the markets and in the stores, there is no excitement, no tragedy of the situation. But if you read the headlines, the problem seems to have acquired a universal scale. The tail is once again wagging the dog, in pursuit of hype, journalists and bloggers are winding up the public, and cunning businessmen are making money on this, just as they once made money on buckwheat and toilet paper.

Of course, the potato problem requires certain solutions. Strategically, it will be necessary to clamp down on the unruly retail, make it more accommodating and socially responsible. And at the moment, measures are already being taken to relieve the excitement caused by the hype. Moreover, the most important, the most effective of them is being taken not by the government, but by ordinary farmers who have long since planted potatoes, and in the southern regions have even begun to collect the first harvest. It is unlikely that it will be possible to pull back the "hype-eaters" who are heating up emotions - freedom of speech, after all. It remains to be hoped that the public and politicians will not become like the stupid man from the joke who dug up potatoes on the second day after planting: "And I really wanted some potatoes with vodka."