World, ruble, May: what will be the national currency exchange rate in the last month of spring

The holiday season is beginning, and Russians are increasingly visiting exchange offices, asking about the dollar exchange rate and its availability. Even those who do not plan to travel abroad want to know how the ruble will behave in May and when it is better to make expensive purchases: now or postpone them until later, when the ruble becomes even stronger. MK asked experts to share their forecast for the exchange rate at the end of spring.

There are plenty of forecasts for the ruble exchange rate in May. It is understandable: the mass vacation period is beginning, and some Russians are determined to relax not among their native birches and pines, but surrounded by exotic palm trees. And for this, they need currency, and – given the difficulties with card payments – mainly cash.

But there is no unity in the ranks of financiers on the issue of the exchange rate. Some analysts claim that the ruble exchange rate will collapse immediately after the May holidays, falling from the current 82 to 95 per dollar, and perhaps even lower. Therefore, it is better to acquire “toxic” currency right now, without delay. Others, on the contrary, are confident that our ruble will retain its current values ​​in May, and may even strengthen even more. Therefore, there is no need to rush, and act according to the situation at the time of departure for a foreign holiday.

Whether this is true or not, the ruble has shown enviable resilience so far. Over the past two months, it has strengthened by 38% on the over-the-counter market. The dynamics of its triumph can be clearly seen in April. Having started the month at 85.5, it then strengthened to 81.13 per dollar, and then corrected a little. On April 26, the official rate was set at 82.65 rubles.

But how long will the ruble's triumphant march last? There are many uncertainties on this score. Among them are the unpredictable policies of the American president, leading to trade wars, and falling oil prices, and geopolitical news concerning the conflict in Ukraine, and domestic Russian economic factors...

Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the average monthly exchange rate of the ruble in May will be around 85 per dollar.

- The main difficulties for our national currency will begin later, closer to autumn, - he believes. - Today, the ruble reacts weakly to the foreign economic situation, in particular, to oil prices. And by autumn, the tariff wars declared by Trump will make themselves known in full. It is unlikely that they will have the declared scale. However, the costs of what has already happened are quite significant, including for Russia. So we will still reap the fruits of this policy of the US President.

- It can be estimated that the ruble will begin to weaken and give up its positions, - says Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center for Market Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. - I would attribute the movement of currencies in the current account of the balance of payments to the factor of its strengthening since the beginning of the year. Imports are falling, and exports are standing still, even growing slightly. This balance is moving into surplus, there is currency, and therefore the ruble exchange rate is strengthening.

However, a week ago, the Ministry of Economic Development revised its forecast for this indicator for 2025. If at the beginning of this year the average annual rate was forecast at 96.5 per dollar, now it is 94.5 rubles. But in order for us to reach 94.5 rubles on average, in the second half of the year the dollar must “fly away” for 100 rubles, because now it is slightly above 80. Therefore, I believe that in May and further, the sluggish strengthening of the American currency will continue.

- How can the weakening of the ruble affect the economy and citizens?

- The situation is absolutely normal. I think that today our national currency is somewhat overvalued. This is a big problem for the budget. Nothing terrible will happen if the ruble goes even to the region of 90-95 for an "American".

- But imports will become more expensive?

- Prices will increase a little, although they did not fall much even with the strong ruble. But the budget will be able to finance various strategic areas, including social ones. And this is a big plus for citizens.

- What do you think the ruble exchange rate will be in May? Will it continue the April strengthening trend?

- No, a gradual weakening will begin, to 85-86 per dollar. Here we must take into account that the holiday season is beginning, and in May and in the summer months, demand for dollars always increases. Now we need to take cash abroad. The "American" will be in short supply. By the end of May, a dollar may be worth 90 rubles.

- What risks may the ruble face during this period?

- We live in an era of uncertainty, and anything can happen. However, I believe that the maximum deviation of the ruble from the exchange rate can be within 2-3%, no more. And this is normal: the main thing for us is that the exchange rate does not jump up and down, as sometimes happened - sometimes the dollar is 30 rubles and our currency is declared almost the most reliable in the world, then the dollar is 110 rubles and, accordingly, the ruble is the weakest currency. We need stability. Let it be 95 rubles, plus or minus 2%, but so that it continues for at least 2-3 years. Then businesses will be able to accurately outline their strategic tasks. And citizens will know how to distribute their budget so that their savings do not go up in smoke the next morning.