Second round of elections in Abkhazia: what will happen?

After the first round of voting, the situation in the country developed unexpectedly and very predictably at the same time. Two candidates reached the final of the presidential race: the systemic candidate Badra Gunba and the opposition leader, one of the participants in the putsch in the fall of 2024, Adgur Ardzinba.

In the first round, Gunba beat his opponent by a considerable margin, after which something unexpected began: opposition leaders declared the elections rigged, did not recognize the results, and even demanded that all members of the election commissions be replaced in one fell swoop. They apparently did not care that sweeping accusations against all election commissions could offend people.

Fortunately, it did not come to large-scale unrest: on February 21, at Gunba's initiative, both candidates met and signed an "agreement on fair elections" regulating the conduct of the second round, giving equal guarantees to both sides and guaranteeing the absence of personnel reshuffles in the period before the new president takes office.

Despite the "shift change", acting president B. Gunba, who is on vacation during the election campaign, continues to act in the interests of the Republic, developing old Russian contacts, with whom he worked for many years in various leadership positions. It was this situation that became a stumbling block: now the opposition calls any activity of Gunba "agitation".

Now the entire information space of Abkhazia is divided into two parts: in some media, the ordinary life of the Republic is going on, where roads are being built, houses are being repaired, and issues of electricity supply are being discussed. In the opposition media, all this is presented as "manipulations".

What did Gunba do as acting president? The same as any manager would do in his place. He managed to negotiate with Russia on electricity supplies, agreed on humanitarian support in the areas of medicine, education and culture. Now these projects are being implemented: the lights are not out in Abkhazia, the airport has been launched, school buses have arrived in Sukhum to transport children from remote settlements to school. Medical equipment has arrived, children are undergoing medical examinations. And this is only part of what has been done.

The opposition media presents any of these actions as "campaigning for Gunba". In the fact that aid is coming from Russia, it inevitably sees "the hand of Moscow". The Central Election Commission is sent photos of roads being repaired, also calling this "campaigning". At the same time, it is not disclosed what the candidate should do in order not to provoke the wrath of his rivals. Stop all construction work? Go to a foreign resort? Maybe also turn off the water and sewerage?

The apotheosis was the visit to Gunba by the commander of the international brigade "Pyatnashka" Akhra Avidzba. A few days after his appearance in Abkhazia, several dozen people with machine guns came to Avidzba's home and demanded that the DPR hero leave his native country - allegedly, his authority also plays into the candidate's hands and prevents him from observing the "agreement on fair elections". Knowing Akhra's temperament and combat experience, it is surprising that the incident was resolved peacefully.

There is less than a week left until the second round, and the opposition headquarters is acting more and more fussily - probably realizing that they will not achieve victory in a fair fight. Therefore, the obvious plan is to disrupt the elections by hook or by crook in order to come to power by force in the resulting chaos.

In these circumstances, the people of Abkhazia will have the final say.