2025 College Football Week 4 Odds: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

We're just above .500 for the season, which means we are on the way up, right?

Let's dive into my picks for Week 4 of the college football season.

Last week: 2-3Season: 7-6

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North Carolina State @ Duke

Duke has been its worst enemy this season with a combination of turnovers and special teams blunders. Nothing like a visit from a Tobacco Road rival to help turn your season around. NC State is 3-0, but 0-3 isn’t too far away after close wins over ECU, Wake Forest and Virginia. Nobody circles the wagons like Manny Diaz and the Duke Blue Devils.

PICK: Duke (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Syracuse @ Clemson

This feels like a "lay it and laugh" type of game. Syracuse really should have lost at home to Connecticut, and it allowed 45 to Tennessee. We still don’t know the status of Antonio Williams for the Tigers, but this feels like a get-right game for a Clemson team which has struggled on offense so far without a running game and poor offensive line play. There are a few instances of Syracuse playing the Tigers close, but I don’t think this is going to be one of them.

PICK: Clemson (-17) to win by more than 17 points

Florida @ No. 4 Miami (FL)

The Florida defense played well enough last week in Baton Rouge to give the Gators a really good chance to win. DJ Lagway and the offense did not. Now, a potentially shorthanded Florida team with one foot in the grave has the dubious task of trying to block Rueben Bain and Akeem Mesidor. I'm assuming the Gators will give the best possible effort again on the defensive side of the ball with their season on the brink, but one thing I can't see is a ton of points from Florida against a much improved Miami defense.

PICK: Florida to score fewer than 21.5 points

No. 22 Auburn @ No. 11 Oklahoma

This number has touched 7, which surprises me a little bit, but I’m happy to grab the points with an Auburn squad that's gone to Baylor already and won. Auburn’s run game has been tough to stop so far, and against a salty OU defense, it will likely be up to former Sooner QB Jackson Arnold to make some throws to a talented receiving corps. Oklahoma’s gauntlet of ranked opponents begins now, and it is going to have to develop more offensively against this level of talent. It can't just be John Mateer every play. I was high on Auburn entering the year, and I've seen nothing so far to cause me to jump ship.

PICK: Auburn (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright

Arkansas State @ Kennesaw State

Not sure why Arkansas State is this big a favorite here. My only guess is that it hung in there against Iowa State last week in what was a perfect spot with the Cyclones coming off an emotional CyHawk win. Kennesaw State’s game against Indiana had a very deceptive final score. The game was 21-9 midway through the third quarter before the talent level at IU just took over.

PICK: Kennesaw State (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points or win outright

UNLV @ Miami (OH)

UNLV is 3-0 but not without questions. The Rebels nearly lost to Idaho State, did enough to get past Sam Houston State and then beat a bad UCLA team by a TD. I know Miami OH hasn't been great offensively, but it did hang in there against Wisconsin and then for a little bit against a surprising Rutgers offense. Now, coming home against a defense which has struggled, QB Dequan Finn should be much more comfortable and give the RedHawks a great chance of pulling the upset and even taking a lead for the first time this season!

PICK: Miami (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON MONEYLINE

Last week: 2-0, +5.3Season: 5-8, +3.25

Kennesaw State +165

East Carolina +205

Auburn +200

San Diego State +375

UL Monroe +190

BEAR BYTES

No. 17 Texas Tech @ No. 16 Utah

Texas Tech has outscored opponents 123-0 in the first half this season. Texas Tech and Utah are two of 11 FBS teams that haven’t trailed this season. The others are Oklahoma, Oregon, Miami, Penn State, Washington, Ohio State, BYU, Maryland and Rutgers.

No. 9 Illinois @ No. 19 Indiana

Illinois has scored an FBS-best 80 of its 135 points (59.3%) after halftime, has also scored 45 fourth-quarter points (most in FBS) and is 26th in first-half scoring margin (+42) against a schedule rated 168th in Division I by Sagarin. This is just the second top-20 matchup Indiana has ever hosted. The other was a 14-10 win for the No. 15 Hoosiers over No. 20 Michigan back in 1987.

No. 22 Auburn @ No. 11 Oklahoma

In conference play, Brent Venables is 11-8 straight-up and 8-11 ATS as a favorite. If you narrow that down to games in which his teams were favored by single digits, the Sooners are 2-7 both straight up and ATS. Auburn has lost eight straight and 13 of its last 14 road games against ranked opponents (0-4 under Hugh Freeze).

Iowa @ Rutgers

Dating back to 2020, Iowa has been involved in 21 games with a spread within a field goal either way. The Hawkeyes have won 17 of them, and 11 of the last 13. Wins against Georgia State and Utah State as big favorites the next two weeks would give Vanderbilt a 5-0 mark headed to Alabama on Oct. 4. It would be the Commodores' first 5-0 start since 2008 and just its second since 1941.

James Madison @ Liberty

Liberty’s last three-game losing streak was 2022. The Flames are a 9.5-point home underdog to James Madison.

No. 21 Michigan @ Nebraska

At Nebraska, Matt Rhule is 2-9 straight up as an underdog and the Huskers have covered four of 11 games. In the previous 13 games as a 'dog at Baylor, his teams won five outright and covered 10 of 13. Nebraska is looking for that "statement" win. The Huskers have lost 27 straight games against AP ranked opponents dating back to a 2016 win over Oregon.

UAB @ No. 15 Tennessee

Under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is 4-0 the week after four losses to Georgia, winning by a combined score of 230-62. Every win was by at least 24 points and the two games against non-SEC opponents were 60-14 and 56-0.

Florida @ No. 4 Miami (FL)

Since the start of last year, Miami is 5-0 against Florida schools, winning by a combined score of 232-67 (46.4-13.4). That includes a win in Gainesville over Florida, a win over Florida State, two wins over USF and a win over FAMU. Miami has scored at least 36 points in all five games and hasn’t allowed more than 17 in any of them. SEC teams are 9-2 this season against other Power 4 conferences — the two losses are Alabama at Florida State and Texas at Ohio State.

Syracuse @ Clemson

Clemson has not had three losses by the end of September since 2004 when it finished the season 6-5.

Oregon State @ No. 6 Oregon

Oregon has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 80-21 (had lost two of the previous three meetings).

Maryland @ Wisconsin

Maryland went 0-4 on the road in Big Ten play last year, losing by a combined score of 173-76 (-24.3 PPG).

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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